Question 1

Which of the following is a potential shortcoming of using sales force opinions in demand forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A)  Members of the sales force often have substantial histories of working with and understanding their customers. 
B)  Members of the sales force often are well aware of customers' future plans. 
C)  Members of the sales force have direct contact with consumers. 
D)  Members of the sales force can have difficulty distinguishing between what customers would like to do and what they actually will do. 
E)  Customers often are quite open with members of the sales force with regard to future plans. 
A)  Members of the sales force often have substantial histories of working with and understanding their customers. 
B)  Members of the sales force often are well aware of customers' future plans. 
C)  Members of the sales force have direct contact with consumers. 
D)  Members of the sales force can have difficulty distinguishing between what customers would like to do and what they actually will do. 
E)  Customers often are quite open with members of the sales force with regard to future plans.

Question 2

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline \text { Year } & \text { Enrollments } \
\hline \text { 5 Years ago } & 15,000 \
\hline \text { 4 Years ago } & 16,000 \
\hline 3 \text { Years ago } & 18,000 \
\hline \text { 2 Years ago } & 20,000 \
\hline \text { Last Year } & 21,000 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A)  18,750 
B)  19,500 
C)  21,000 
D)  22,650 
E)  22,800 
A)  18,750 
B)  19,500 
C)  21,000 
D)  22,650 
E)  22,800

Question 3

Forecasts help managers both to plan the system itself and to provide valuable information for using the system.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

The degree of management involvement in short-range forecasts is:

Accepted Answer

A)  none. 
B)  low. 
C)  moderate. 
D)  high. 
E)  total. 
A)  none. 
B)  low. 
C)  moderate. 
D)  high. 
E)  total.

Question 5

Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5? $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline  { \text { Year } } & \text { Attendance } \
\hline \text { Four Years ago } & 10,000 \
\hline \text { Three Years ago } & 12,000 \
\hline \text { Two Years ago } & 18,000 \
\hline \text { Last Year } & 20,000 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

A)  144.2 
B)  144.8 
C)  144.67 
D)  143 
E)  144 
A)  144.2 
B)  144.8 
C)  144.67 
D)  143 
E)  144

Question 6

A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an identifiable pattern.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  0 
B)  0.01 
C)  0.1 
D)  0.5 
E)  1 
A)  0 
B)  0.01 
C)  0.1 
D)  0.5 
E)  1

Question 8

Suppose a three-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are as follows: wt-3 = 0.2, wt-2 = 0.3 and wt-1 = 0.5. Demand observed in the previous three periods was as follows: At-3 = 2,200, At-2 = 1,950, At-1 = 2,050. What will be the demand forecast for period t?

Accepted Answer

A)  2,000 
B)  2,095 
C)  1,980 
D)  2,050 
E)  1,875 
A)  2,000 
B)  2,095 
C)  1,980 
D)  2,050 
E)  1,875

Question 9

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Enrollment } \
\hline \text { Four years ago } & 2000 \
\hline \text { Three years ago } & 2200 \
\hline \text { Two years ago } & 2800 \
\hline \text { Last year } & 3000 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

Accepted Answer

A)  2,667 
B)  2,600 
C)  2,500 
D)  2,400 
E)  2,333 
A)  2,667 
B)  2,600 
C)  2,500 
D)  2,400 
E)  2,333

Question 10

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A)  executive opinions 
B)  sales force opinions 
C)  consumer surveys 
D)  the Delphi method 
E)  time series analysis 
A)  executive opinions 
B)  sales force opinions 
C)  consumer surveys 
D)  the Delphi method 
E)  time series analysis

Question 11

Time-series techniques involve the identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

Accepted Answer

A)  Immediately reflect changing patterns in the data. 
B)  Lead changes in the data. 
C)  Smooth variations in the data. 
D)  Operate independently of recent data. 
E)  Assist when organizations are relocating. 
A)  Immediately reflect changing patterns in the data. 
B)  Lead changes in the data. 
C)  Smooth variations in the data. 
D)  Operate independently of recent data. 
E)  Assist when organizations are relocating.

Question 13

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

Accepted Answer

A)  a naive forecast. 
B)  a simple moving average forecast. 
C)  a centered moving average forecast. 
D)  an exponentially smoothed forecast. 
E)  an associative forecast. 
A)  a naive forecast. 
B)  a simple moving average forecast. 
C)  a centered moving average forecast. 
D)  an exponentially smoothed forecast. 
E)  an associative forecast.

Question 14

A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called:

Accepted Answer

A)  bias. 
B)  tracking. 
C)  control charting. 
D)  positive correlation. 
E)  linear regression. 
A)  bias. 
B)  tracking. 
C)  control charting. 
D)  positive correlation. 
E)  linear regression.

Question 15

The use of a control chart assumes that random errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Accepted Answer

A)  mean absolute deviation 
B)  mean squared error 
C)  tracking signal 
D)  bias 
E)  MAPE 
A)  mean absolute deviation 
B)  mean squared error 
C)  tracking signal 
D)  bias 
E)  MAPE

Question 17

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of:

Accepted Answer

A)  an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
B)  the most recent actual value and an estimated trend value 
C)  the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor. 
D)  the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
E)  a moving average and a trend factor. 
A)  an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
B)  the most recent actual value and an estimated trend value 
C)  the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor. 
D)  the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
E)  a moving average and a trend factor.

Question 18

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline  { \text { Month } } & \text { Number of Visits } \
\hline \text { April } & 100 \
\hline \text { May } & 140 \
\hline \text { June } & 110 \
\hline \text { July } & 150 \
\hline \text { August } & 120 \
\hline \text { September } & 160 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
What is the monthly rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A)  320 
B)  102 
C)  8 
D)  -0.4 
E)  -8 
A)  320 
B)  102 
C)  8 
D)  -0.4 
E)  -8

Question 19

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Accepted Answer

A)  estimate the trend line. 
B)  eliminate forecast errors. 
C)  measure forecast accuracy. 
D)  seasonally adjust the forecast. 
E)  compute periodic forecast errors. 
A)  estimate the trend line. 
B)  eliminate forecast errors. 
C)  measure forecast accuracy. 
D)  seasonally adjust the forecast. 
E)  compute periodic forecast errors.

Which of the following is a potential shortcoming of using sales force opinions in demand forecasting?

Forecasts help managers both to plan the system itself and to provide valuable information for using the system.

The degree of management involvement in short-range forecasts is:

Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5? Year Attendance Four Years ago 10,000 Three Years ago 12,000 Two Years ago 18,000 Last Year 20,000

A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an identifiable pattern.

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Time-series techniques involve the identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called:

The use of a control chart assumes that random errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of:

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness

Product and Service Design

RELIABILITY – Static

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Decision Theory– Static

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

learning curve– Static

Location Planning and Analysis

The Transportation Model– Static

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Acceptance Sampling– Static

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

JIT and Lean Operations

Maintenance– Static

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Filters

Exam 3: Forecasting

Which of the following is a potential shortcoming of using sales force opinions in demand forecasting?

Forecasts help managers both to plan the system itself and to provide valuable information for using the system.

The degree of management involvement in short-range forecasts is:

Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5? Year Attendance Four Years ago 10,000 Three Years ago 12,000 Two Years ago 18,000 Last Year 20,000

A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an identifiable pattern.

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Time-series techniques involve the identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called:

The use of a control chart assumes that random errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of:

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Introduction to Operations Management

Competitiveness

Product and Service Design

RELIABILITY – Static

Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

Decision Theory– Static

Process Selection and Facility Layout

Work Design and Measurement

learning curve– Static

Location Planning and Analysis

The Transportation Model– Static

Management of Quality

Quality Control

Acceptance Sampling– Static

Aggregate Planning and Master Scheduling

MRP and ERP

Inventory Management

JIT and Lean Operations

Maintenance– Static

Supply Chain Management

Scheduling

Project Management

Management of Waiting Lines

Linear Programming

Filters