Exam 11: Forecasting and Demand Planning

Based on the information shown below in Table 5, develop a forecast for June using both the two-period moving average model and the exponential smoothing model with ? = 0.10. For the exponential smoothing model, assume the forecast for February is 800. Answer questions Table 5 Month Actual Demand February 850 March 900 April 975 May 950 -The 2-period moving average forecast for June is:

In practice, managers rely almost exclusively on statistical forecasts.

A major difference between mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute deviation (MAD) is that MAD is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

Using the data shown below, compute the mean square error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error for the forecasts shown. Month Forecast Demand Actual Demand April 170 180 May 225 215 June 210 200 July 260 240 August 200 220

Which of the following is NOT a valid approach to gather data for judgmental forecasting?

Valentine's Day is the best day of the year for selling roses at River Road Florist. Dozens of roses sold on Valentine's Day over six years are as follows: Year Dozen 2005 104 2006 109 2007 101 2008 114 2009 104 2010 100 a.What is the forecast for Valentine's Day in 2011 using a three-period moving average? b.What is the forecast for Valentine's Day in 2011 using a five-period moving average? c.What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for years 2008-2010 using a three-period moving average? d.What is the tracking signal for years 2008-2010 using a three-period moving average?

Using the sales data on a particular model of a DVD player shown below in Table 2, answer questions Table 2 Month Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Jan 35 30 33 Feb 29 28 32 Mar 39 43 35 Apr 42 40 45 May 51 48 52 Jun 56 55 52 -The mean absolute deviation (MAD) for forecast 2 is:

Exponential smoothing models never forget past data as long as the smoothing constant is strictly between 0 and 1. In contrast, moving average methods completely forget all data older than k periods in the past.

Sales of a new CD at a store for the last 4 weeks are shown below. Week 1 2 3 4 Sales 112 105 125 118 a.Find a three-period moving average forecast for the next week. b.Find a four-period moving average forecast for the next week. c.Actual sales for week 5 were 105 units. What would be the three- and four-period moving average forecasts for week 6?

Using the data shown below in Table 1, compute the mean square error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error for the forecasts shown and then answer Questions Table 1 Month Forecast Demand Actual Demand April 170 180 May 225 200 June 210 200 July 260 240 August 200 230 -The mean squared error (MSE) is:

_____ forecasts are necessary to plan for facility expansion.

Repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time are called _____.

The following data represents the home mortgage loan interest rates at a local bank over an eight-month period: Month Rate (\%) Month Rate (\%) 1 8.7 5 8.6 2 8.7 6 8.4 3 8.6 7 8.8 4 8.6 8 8.8 a.What is the forecast for month 8 using a moving average model with k = 4? b.What is the forecast for month 9 using a moving average model with k = 6?

Forecasts are never 100% accurate because of random variations.

In a regression model, both the dependent and independent variables must be numerical.

A Taiwan electronics company exports personal computers (PCs) to the U.S. Their PC sales (in thousands) over the past five years are given below in Table 6. Table 6 Year Sales 1 6 2 9 3 13 4 15 5 20 -Using the data in Table 6 the forecast for sales in year 6 using the simple regression equation is:

Single exponential smoothing is a forecasting technique that uses a weighted average of past time-series values to forecast the value of the time series in the next period.

Which of the following is NOT a statistical forecasting method?

Which one of the following statements is TRUE?

Which of the following statements does NOT fit with the Delphi method?