Question 1

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates,money supplies,housing starts,and other planning indicators.

Accepted Answer

Economic

Question 2

The tracking signal is the

Accepted Answer

A) standard error of the estimate. 
B) absolute deviation of the last period's forecast. 
C) mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
D) ratio of cumulative error/MAD. 
E) mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
A) standard error of the estimate. 
B) absolute deviation of the last period's forecast. 
C) mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
D) ratio of cumulative error/MAD. 
E) mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . D

Question 3

A(n)________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

Accepted Answer

moving average

Question 4

A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that

Accepted Answer

A) trend projection uses least squares while linear regression does not. 
B) only linear regression can have a negative slope. 
C) in trend projection the independent variable is time;in linear regression the independent variable need not be time,but can be any variable with explanatory power. 
D) trend projection can be a function of several variables,while linear regression can only be a function of one variable. 
E) trend projection uses two smoothing constants,not just one. 
A) trend projection uses least squares while linear regression does not. 
B) only linear regression can have a negative slope. 
C) in trend projection the independent variable is time;in linear regression the independent variable need not be time,but can be any variable with explanatory power. 
D) trend projection can be a function of several variables,while linear regression can only be a function of one variable. 
E) trend projection uses two smoothing constants,not just one.

Question 5

The last four months of sales were 8,10,15,and 9 units.The last four forecasts were 5,6,11,and 12 units.The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)is

Accepted Answer

A) 2. 
B) -10. 
C) 3.5. 
D) 9. 
E) 10.5. 
A) 2. 
B) -10. 
C) 3.5. 
D) 9. 
E) 10.5.

Question 6

Compare seasonal effects and cyclical effects.

Accepted Answer

A cycle is longer (typically s

Question 7

Linear regression is known as a(n)________ because it incorporates variables or factors that might influence the quantity being forecast.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Linear regression is known as a(n)________ because...

Question 8

Which time-series model uses past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) naive 
B) moving average 
C) weighted moving average 
D) exponential smoothing 
E) regression analysis 
A) naive 
B) moving average 
C) weighted moving average 
D) exponential smoothing 
E) regression analysis

Question 9

What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 4,3,2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

Accepted Answer

2 × 42 + 3 × 47 + 4

Question 10

The larger the number of periods in the simple moving average forecasting method,the greater the method's responsiveness to changes in demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

Give an example-other than a restaurant or other food-service firm-of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern.(That is,each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day. )Explain.

Accepted Answer

Answer will vary.How

Question 12

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's,and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week,business at the barbershop is subject to ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's...

Question 13

Patterns in the data that occur every several years are called circuits.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach,but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data,he should

Accepted Answer

A) use weights to place more emphasis on recent data. 
B) use weights to minimize the importance of the trend. 
C) change to a naïve approach. 
D) use a simple moving average. 
E) change to a qualitative approach. 
A) use weights to place more emphasis on recent data. 
B) use weights to minimize the importance of the trend. 
C) change to a naïve approach. 
D) use a simple moving average. 
E) change to a qualitative approach.

Question 15

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Seasonal indices adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

For a given product demand,the time series trend equation is 53 - 4 X.The negative sign on the slope of the equation

Accepted Answer

A) is a mathematical impossibility. 
B) is an indication that the forecast is biased,with forecast values lower than actual values. 
C) is an indication that product demand is declining. 
D) implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative. 
E) implies that the cumulative error will be negative. 
A) is a mathematical impossibility. 
B) is an indication that the forecast is biased,with forecast values lower than actual values. 
C) is an indication that product demand is declining. 
D) implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative. 
E) implies that the cumulative error will be negative.

Question 18

The forecasting model that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as the

Accepted Answer

A) expert judgment model. 
B) multiple regression model. 
C) jury of executive opinion model. 
D) consumer market survey model. 
E) management coefficients model. 
A) expert judgment model. 
B) multiple regression model. 
C) jury of executive opinion model. 
D) consumer market survey model. 
E) management coefficients model.

Question 19

Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?

Accepted Answer

A) It is based on the assumption that future demand will be the same as past demand. 
B) It makes extensive use of the data collected in the qualitative approach. 
C) It is based on the assumption that the analysis of past demand helps predict future demand. 
D) Because it accounts for trends,cycles,and seasonal patterns,it is always more powerful than associative forecasting. 
E) All of the above are true. 
A) It is based on the assumption that future demand will be the same as past demand. 
B) It makes extensive use of the data collected in the qualitative approach. 
C) It is based on the assumption that the analysis of past demand helps predict future demand. 
D) Because it accounts for trends,cycles,and seasonal patterns,it is always more powerful than associative forecasting. 
E) All of the above are true.

Question 20

Given the following data,calculate the three-year moving averages for years 4 through 10.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Given the following data,calculate the three-year moving...

Exam 4: Forecasting

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates,money supplies,housing starts,and other planning indicators.

The tracking signal is the

A(n)________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that

The last four months of sales were 8,10,15,and 9 units.The last four forecasts were 5,6,11,and 12 units.The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)is

Compare seasonal effects and cyclical effects.

Linear regression is known as a(n)________ because it incorporates variables or factors that might influence the quantity being forecast.

Which time-series model uses past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 4,3,2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

The larger the number of periods in the simple moving average forecasting method,the greater the method's responsiveness to changes in demand.

Give an example-other than a restaurant or other food-service firm-of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern.(That is,each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day. )Explain.

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's,and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week,business at the barbershop is subject to ________.

Patterns in the data that occur every several years are called circuits.

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach,but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data,he should

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

Seasonal indices adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals.

For a given product demand,the time series trend equation is 53 - 4 X.The negative sign on the slope of the equation

The forecasting model that pools the opinions of a group of experts or managers is known as the

Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?

Given the following data,calculate the three-year moving averages for years 4 through 10.

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