Question 1

What are decision tables?

Accepted Answer

Decision tables are

Question 2

A local business owner is a bit uncertain of the demand forecast,and he is timidly approaching the capacity decision for a business he is about to open.Here's how he describes the decisions that confront him over the next two years.
"First,I have to choose between building a large plant initially and building a small one that has room to expand.Or I could rent now and decide whether to build next year.That one,too,could be the large version or the small.If I build small,then after one year,I can review how good business was,and decide whether to expand.If I build large,there is no further option to enlarge."
Do not concern yourself with probabilities or payoff values.Simply draw the tree that illustrates the manager's decision alternatives and the chance events that go along with them.Use standard symbols for decision tree construction,and label all parts of your diagram carefully.To simplify,assume that business in the first year,and in the second,can be only "good" or "bad."

Accepted Answer

The answer of A local business owner is a bit...

Question 3

Earl Shell owns his own Sno-Cone business and lives 30 miles from a beach resort.The sale of Sno-Cones is highly dependent upon his location and upon the weather.At the resort,he will profit $120 per day in fair weather,$10 per day in bad weather.At home,he will profit $70 in fair weather,$55 in bad weather.Assume that on any particular day,the weather service suggests a 40% chance of foul weather.
a.Construct Earl's decision tree.
b.What decision is recommended by the expected value criterion?

Accepted Answer

Resort has

Question 4

What is the EMV for Option 2 in the following decision table?

Accepted Answer

A) 50 
B) 100 
C) 170 
D) 200 
E) 350 
A) 50 
B) 100 
C) 170 
D) 200 
E) 350

Question 5

What is the EMV for Option 2 in the following decision table?

Accepted Answer

A) 10,000 
B) 16,000 
C) 20,000 
D) 24,000 
E) 30,000 
A) 10,000 
B) 16,000 
C) 20,000 
D) 24,000 
E) 30,000

Question 6

The last step of the decision-making process is to:

Accepted Answer

A) develop a model. 
B) evaluate each alternative. 
C) select the best alternative. 
D) implement the decision. 
E) check the decision with senior management. 
A) develop a model. 
B) evaluate each alternative. 
C) select the best alternative. 
D) implement the decision. 
E) check the decision with senior management.

Question 7

The expected value of perfect information is the same as the expected value with perfect information.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

The EMV of a decision with three states of nature is $50.If the profit/value of A is 1/3 of B and B is 1/3 of C,determine the profit from A if all three states of nature are equally likely to occur.

Accepted Answer

The total payoff is simply the

Question 9

What is the expected value with perfect information in the following decision table?

Accepted Answer

A) 50 
B) 200 
C) 260 
D) 300 
E) 350 
A) 50 
B) 200 
C) 260 
D) 300 
E) 350

Question 10

For the following decision table,the highest value for the equally likely criterion is ________;this occurs with alternative ________.

Accepted Answer

A) $20,000;Option 1 
B) $25,000;Option 2 
C) $28,000;Option 3 
D) $32,000;Option 3 
E) $60,000;Option 3 
A) $20,000;Option 1 
B) $25,000;Option 2 
C) $28,000;Option 3 
D) $32,000;Option 3 
E) $60,000;Option 3

Question 11

A(n)________ is an occurrence or situation over which the decision maker has little or no control.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A(n)________ is an occurrence or situation over...

Question 12

Daily sales of bread by Salvador Monella's Baking Company follow the historical pattern shown in the table below.It costs the bakery 50 cents to produce a loaf of bread,which sells for 95 cents.Any bread unsold at the end of the day is sold to the parish jail for 25 cents per loaf.Construct the decision table of conditional payoffs.How many loaves should Sal bake each day in order to maximize contribution?

Accepted Answer

The Excel OM decision table an

Question 13

The expected value with perfect information:

Accepted Answer

A) equals EVPI - Maximum EMV. 
B) requires that each decision alternative have a known probability of occurrence. 
C) is an input into the calculation of the expected value of perfect information. 
D) is the average of the maximax and the maximin. 
E) none of the above 
A) equals EVPI - Maximum EMV. 
B) requires that each decision alternative have a known probability of occurrence. 
C) is an input into the calculation of the expected value of perfect information. 
D) is the average of the maximax and the maximin. 
E) none of the above

Question 14

What is the expected value with perfect information of the following decision table?

Accepted Answer

A) 5,000 
B) 10,000 
C) 40,000 
D) 60,000 
E) 70,000 
A) 5,000 
B) 10,000 
C) 40,000 
D) 60,000 
E) 70,000

Question 15

A decision tree is a(n):

Accepted Answer

A) algebraic representation of alternatives and states of nature. 
B) behavioral representation of alternatives and states of nature. 
C) matrix representation of alternatives and states of nature. 
D) graphical representation of alternatives and states of nature. 
E) tabular representation of alternatives and states of nature. 
A) algebraic representation of alternatives and states of nature. 
B) behavioral representation of alternatives and states of nature. 
C) matrix representation of alternatives and states of nature. 
D) graphical representation of alternatives and states of nature. 
E) tabular representation of alternatives and states of nature.

Question 16

The expected value with perfect information assumes that all states of nature are equally likely.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

A problem that involves a sequence of decisions:

Accepted Answer

A) cannot be analyzed with expected monetary value. 
B) can be better analyzed with a decision tree than by a decision table. 
C) must be analyzed in the same order that the decisions are made. 
D) cannot be analyzed with decision tree software. 
E) can only be analyzed using decision making under certainty. 
A) cannot be analyzed with expected monetary value. 
B) can be better analyzed with a decision tree than by a decision table. 
C) must be analyzed in the same order that the decisions are made. 
D) cannot be analyzed with decision tree software. 
E) can only be analyzed using decision making under certainty.

Question 18

Doing nothing would yield how much profit if favorable market conditions prevail according to the following profit decision table?

Accepted Answer

A) $5,000 
B) $20,000 
C) -$10,000 
D) $0 
E) $10,000 
A) $5,000 
B) $20,000 
C) -$10,000 
D) $0 
E) $10,000

Question 19

________ is the criterion for decision making under uncertainty that finds an alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ is the criterion for decision making...

Question 20

All EXCEPT which of the following steps are taken to analyze problems with decision trees?

Accepted Answer

A) Define the problem. 
B) Structure or draw the decision tree. 
C) Assign probabilities to the alternatives. 
D) Estimate payoffs for each possible alternative/state of nature combination. 
E) Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values for each state-of-nature node. 
A) Define the problem. 
B) Structure or draw the decision tree. 
C) Assign probabilities to the alternatives. 
D) Estimate payoffs for each possible alternative/state of nature combination. 
E) Solve the problem by computing expected monetary values for each state-of-nature node.

Exam 22: Decision Modeling

What are decision tables?

What is the EMV for Option 2 in the following decision table?

What is the EMV for Option 2 in the following decision table?

The last step of the decision-making process is to:

The expected value of perfect information is the same as the expected value with perfect information.

The EMV of a decision with three states of nature is $50.If the profit/value of A is 1/3 of B and B is 1/3 of C,determine the profit from A if all three states of nature are equally likely to occur.

What is the expected value with perfect information in the following decision table?

For the following decision table,the highest value for the equally likely criterion is ________;this occurs with alternative ________.

A(n)________ is an occurrence or situation over which the decision maker has little or no control.

The expected value with perfect information:

What is the expected value with perfect information of the following decision table?

A decision tree is a(n):

The expected value with perfect information assumes that all states of nature are equally likely.

A problem that involves a sequence of decisions:

Doing nothing would yield how much profit if favorable market conditions prevail according to the following profit decision table?

________ is the criterion for decision making under uncertainty that finds an alternative that maximizes the minimum outcome.

All EXCEPT which of the following steps are taken to analyze problems with decision trees?

Operations and Productivity

The Global Environment and Operations Strategy

Managing Projects

Forecasting Demand

Product Design

Quality Management and International Standards

Process Design

Location Decisions

Layout Decisions

Job Design and Work Measurement

Supply Chain Management

Managing Inventory

Aggregate Scheduling

Material Requirements Planning Mrpand Erp

Scheduling for the Short-Term

Jit,lean Operations,and the Toyota Production System

Maintenance and Reliability Decisions

Sustainability

Statistical Process Control

Capacity Planning

Supply Chain Modeling

Linear Programming Models

Transportation Modeling

Queuing Models

Learning Curves

Modeling with Simulation

Filters

For the following decision table,the highest value for the equally likely criterion is ;this occurs with alternative .