Question 1

The larger the standard error of the estimate,the more accurate the forecasting model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  False

Question 2

For a given product demand,the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x.The negative sign on the slope of the equation:

Accepted Answer

A) is a mathematical impossibility. 
B) is an indication that the forecast is biased,with forecast values lower than actual values. 
C) is an indication that product demand is declining. 
D) implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative. 
E) implies that the cumulative error will be negative. 
A) is a mathematical impossibility. 
B) is an indication that the forecast is biased,with forecast values lower than actual values. 
C) is an indication that product demand is declining. 
D) implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative. 
E) implies that the cumulative error will be negative. C

Question 3

Many services maintain records of sales noting:

Accepted Answer

A) the day of the week. 
B) unusual events. 
C) the weather. 
D) holiday impacts. 
E) all of the above. 
A) the day of the week. 
B) unusual events. 
C) the weather. 
D) holiday impacts. 
E) all of the above. E

Question 4

Given forecast errors of -1,4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A) 2 
B) 3 
C) 4 
D) 8 
E) 16 
A) 2 
B) 3 
C) 4 
D) 8 
E) 16

Question 5

A(n)________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

Accepted Answer

moving ave

Question 6

Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers,staff personnel,and respondents?

Accepted Answer

A) jury of executive opinion 
B) sales force composite 
C) Delphi method 
D) associative models 
E) time series 
A) jury of executive opinion 
B) sales force composite 
C) Delphi method 
D) associative models 
E) time series

Question 7

The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):

Accepted Answer

A) qualitative forecast. 
B) naive forecast. 
C) moving average forecast. 
D) weighted moving average forecast. 
E) exponential smoothing forecast. 
A) qualitative forecast. 
B) naive forecast. 
C) moving average forecast. 
D) weighted moving average forecast. 
E) exponential smoothing forecast.

Question 9

A firm has modeled its experience with industrial accidents and found that the number of accidents per year (y-hat)is related to the number of employees (x)by the regression equation:
y-hat = 3.3 + 0.049x.The r-squared value is 0.68.The regression is based on 20 annual observations.The firm intends to employ 480 workers next year.How many accidents do you project? How much confidence do you have in that forecast?

Accepted Answer

y-hat = 3.3 + 0.049(480)= 3.3 + 23.52 =

Question 10

In trend projection,a negative regression slope is mathematically impossible.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

Explain,in your own words,the meaning of the coefficient of determination.

Accepted Answer

The coefficient of determinati

Question 12

________ is a time-series forecasting method that fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then projects the line into the future for forecasts.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ is a time-series forecasting method that...

Question 13

Explain the role of regression models (time series and otherwise)in forecasting.That is,how is trend projection able to forecast? How is regression used for causal forecasting?

Accepted Answer

For trend projection,the independent var

Question 14

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures,which are related to product demand,to predict demand?

Accepted Answer

A) associative models 
B) exponential smoothing 
C) weighted moving average 
D) moving average 
E) trend projection 
A) associative models 
B) exponential smoothing 
C) weighted moving average 
D) moving average 
E) trend projection

Question 15

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data.The three previous July values were 110,135,and 130.The average over all months is 160.What is the approximate seasonal index for July?

Accepted Answer

(110 + 135

Question 16

Give an example,other than a restaurant or other food-service firm,of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern.(That is,each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day. )Explain.

Accepted Answer

Answer will vary.How

Question 17

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing,but at the expense of:

Accepted Answer

A) manager understanding. 
B) accuracy. 
C) stability. 
D) sensitivity to real changes in the data. 
E) All of the above are diminished when the number of periods increases. 
A) manager understanding. 
B) accuracy. 
C) stability. 
D) sensitivity to real changes in the data. 
E) All of the above are diminished when the number of periods increases.

Question 18

The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local department store.Calculate the MAD for the manager's forecast.Compare the manager's forecast against a naive forecast covering the same time period.Which is better?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& The manager's forecast has a

Question 19

Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?

Accepted Answer

A) It is always based on the assumption that future demand will be the same as past demand. 
B) It makes extensive use of the data collected in the qualitative approach. 
C) It is based on the assumption that the analysis of past demand helps predict future demand. 
D) Because it accounts for trends,cycles,and seasonal patterns,it is always more powerful than associative forecasting. 
E) All of the above are true. 
A) It is always based on the assumption that future demand will be the same as past demand. 
B) It makes extensive use of the data collected in the qualitative approach. 
C) It is based on the assumption that the analysis of past demand helps predict future demand. 
D) Because it accounts for trends,cycles,and seasonal patterns,it is always more powerful than associative forecasting. 
E) All of the above are true.

Question 20

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach,but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data,he should:

Accepted Answer

A) use weights to place more emphasis on recent data. 
B) use weights to minimize the importance of the trend. 
C) change to an associative multiple regression approach. 
D) use a simple moving average. 
E) change to a qualitative approach. 
A) use weights to place more emphasis on recent data. 
B) use weights to minimize the importance of the trend. 
C) change to an associative multiple regression approach. 
D) use a simple moving average. 
E) change to a qualitative approach.

Exam 4: Forecasting Demand

The larger the standard error of the estimate,the more accurate the forecasting model.

For a given product demand,the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x.The negative sign on the slope of the equation:

Many services maintain records of sales noting:

Given forecast errors of -1,4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

A(n)________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers,staff personnel,and respondents?

The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n):

In trend projection,a negative regression slope is mathematically impossible.

Explain,in your own words,the meaning of the coefficient of determination.

________ is a time-series forecasting method that fits a trend line to a series of historical data points and then projects the line into the future for forecasts.

Explain the role of regression models (time series and otherwise)in forecasting.That is,how is trend projection able to forecast? How is regression used for causal forecasting?

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures,which are related to product demand,to predict demand?

A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data.The three previous July values were 110,135,and 130.The average over all months is 160.What is the approximate seasonal index for July?

Give an example,other than a restaurant or other food-service firm,of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern.(That is,each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day. )Explain.

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing,but at the expense of:

The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local department store.Calculate the MAD for the manager's forecast.Compare the manager's forecast against a naive forecast covering the same time period.Which is better?

Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach,but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data,he should:

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