Exam 16: A: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation

Game Show Winnings & Education An ardent fan of television game shows has observed that,in general,the more educated the contestant,the less money he or she wins.To test her belief she gathers data about the last eight winners of her favorite game show.She records their winnings in dollars and the number of years of education.The results are as follows. Contestant Years of Education Winnings 1 11 750 2 15 400 3 12 600 4 16 350 5 11 800 0 16 300 7 13 650 8 14 400 -{Game Show Winnings & Education Narrative} Conduct a test of the population coefficient of correlation to determine at the 5% significance level whether a negative linear relationship exists between years of education and TV game shows' winnings.

In simple linear regression,which of the following statements indicates there is no linear relationship between the variables x and y?

The probability distribution of the error variable $\varepsilon$ is normal,with mean E( $\varepsilon$ )= 0,and standard deviation $\sigma$ _{$\varepsilon$} =1.

A simple linear regression equation is given by $\hat { y } = 5.25 + 3.8 x$ .The point estimate of y when x = 4 is 20.45.

Oil Quality and Price Quality of oil is measured in API gravity degrees--the higher the degrees API,the higher the quality.The table shown below is produced by an expert in the field who believes that there is a relationship between quality and price per barrel. $\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Oi degrees API } & \text { Price per barrel (in \$) } \\\hline 27.0 & 12.02 \\28.5 & 12.04 \\30.8 & 12.32 \\31.3 & 12.27 \\31.9 & 12.49 \\34.5 & 12.70 \\34.0 & 12.80 \\34.7 & 13.00 \\37.0 & 13.00 \\41.0 & 13.17 \\41.0 & 13.19 \\38.8 & 13.22 \\39.3 & 13.27 \\\hline\end{array}$ A partial Minitab output follows: Dascriptive atafistics Variable Mear StDev SE Mear Degrees 13 34.60 4.613 1.280 Price 13 1270 0.757 0.127 Covariances Degeres Price Degeres 21.281667 Price 2.026750 0.208933 Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F p Regeression 1 2.3162 2.3162 134.24 0.000 Resichul Entar 11 0.1898 0.0173 Total 12 2.5060 -{Oil Quality and Price Narrative} Plot the least squares regression line on the scatter diagram.

You cannot interpret the ____________________ of the simple linear regression line unless the value of x = 0 lies within the range of where data was collected.

The graph of a confidence interval for the expected value of y is represented by two curved lines,one on either side of the regression line.

If the coefficient of correlation is -0.80,then the percentage of the variation in y that is explained by the variation in x is:

Movie Revenues A financier whose specialty is investing in movie productions has observed that,in general,movies with "big-name" stars seem to generate more revenue than those movies whose stars are less well known.To examine his belief he records the gross revenue and the payment (in $ millions)given to the two highest-paid performers in the movie for ten recently released movies. Movie Cost of Twa Highest Paid Perfarmers ( \mil ) Grass Revenue () 1 5.3 48 2 7.2 65 3 1.3 18 4 1.8 20 5 3.5 31 6 2.6 26 7 8.0 73 8 2.4 23 9 4.5 39 10 0.7 58 -{Cost of Books Narrative} Which interval in the previous question is narrower: the confidence interval estimate of the expected value of y or the prediction interval for the same given value of x (10 years)and same confidence level? Why?

You use a(n)____________________ interval whenever you want to estimate the mean of y when x is a given value.

The least squares method for determining the best fit minimizes:

In regression analysis,you predict the value of one variable on the basis of one or more other related variables.The variable being predicted is called the ____________________ variable,and the related variables used to make the prediction are called ____________________ variables.

Game Show Winnings & Education An ardent fan of television game shows has observed that,in general,the more educated the contestant,the less money he or she wins.To test her belief she gathers data about the last eight winners of her favorite game show.She records their winnings in dollars and the number of years of education.The results are as follows. Contestant Years of Education Winnings 1 11 750 2 15 400 3 12 600 4 16 350 5 11 800 0 16 300 7 13 650 8 14 400 -{Game Show Winnings & Education Narrative} Determine the standard error of estimate and describe what this statistic tells you about the regression line.

Accidents and Rain A statistician investigating the relationship between the amount of rain (in inches)and the number of automobile accidents gathered data on accidents in her city for 10 randomly selected days throughout the year.The results are shown below. Day Rain Number of Accidents 1 0.05 5 2 0.12 6 3 0.05 2 4 0.08 4 5 0.10 6 0.35 14 7 0.15 7 8 0.30 13 9 0.10 7 10 0.20 10 -{Accidents and Rain Narrative} What other variables might be associated with accidents,besides or along with rain?

Oil Quality and Price Quality of oil is measured in API gravity degrees--the higher the degrees API,the higher the quality.The table shown below is produced by an expert in the field who believes that there is a relationship between quality and price per barrel. $\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Oi degrees API } & \text { Price per barrel (in \$) } \\\hline 27.0 & 12.02 \\28.5 & 12.04 \\30.8 & 12.32 \\31.3 & 12.27 \\31.9 & 12.49 \\34.5 & 12.70 \\34.0 & 12.80 \\34.7 & 13.00 \\37.0 & 13.00 \\41.0 & 13.17 \\41.0 & 13.19 \\38.8 & 13.22 \\39.3 & 13.27 \\\hline\end{array}$ A partial Minitab output follows: Dascriptive atafistics Variable Mear StDev SE Mear Degrees 13 34.60 4.613 1.280 Price 13 1270 0.757 0.127 Covariances Degeres Price Degeres 21.281667 Price 2.026750 0.208933 Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F p Regeression 1 2.3162 2.3162 134.24 0.000 Resichul Entar 11 0.1898 0.0173 Total 12 2.5060 -The value of the sum of squares for regression SSR can never be smaller than 1.

Oil Quality and Price Quality of oil is measured in API gravity degrees--the higher the degrees API,the higher the quality.The table shown below is produced by an expert in the field who believes that there is a relationship between quality and price per barrel. $\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Oi degrees API } & \text { Price per barrel (in \$) } \\\hline 27.0 & 12.02 \\28.5 & 12.04 \\30.8 & 12.32 \\31.3 & 12.27 \\31.9 & 12.49 \\34.5 & 12.70 \\34.0 & 12.80 \\34.7 & 13.00 \\37.0 & 13.00 \\41.0 & 13.17 \\41.0 & 13.19 \\38.8 & 13.22 \\39.3 & 13.27 \\\hline\end{array}$ A partial Minitab output follows: Dascriptive atafistics Variable Mear StDev SE Mear Degrees 13 34.60 4.613 1.280 Price 13 1270 0.757 0.127 Covariances Degeres Price Degeres 21.281667 Price 2.026750 0.208933 Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F p Regeression 1 2.3162 2.3162 134.24 0.000 Resichul Entar 11 0.1898 0.0173 Total 12 2.5060 -{Oil Quality and Price Narrative} Interpret the value of the slope of the regression line.

Graphically,a prediction interval is represented as two ____________________ lines.

The confidence interval estimate of the expected value of y will be wider than the prediction interval for the same given value of x and confidence level.This is because there is more error in estimating a mean value as opposed to predicting an individual value.

U V's and Skin Cancer A medical statistician wanted to examine the relationship between the amount of UV's (x)and incidence of skin cancer (y).As an experiment he found the number of skin cancers detected per 100,000 of population and the average daily sunshine in eight states around the country.These data are shown below. Average Daily UV's 5 7 6 7 8 6 4 3 Skin Cancer per 100,000 7 11 9 12 15 10 7 5 -{UV's and Skin Cancer Narrative} Calculate the coefficient of determination and interpret it.

Income and Education A professor of economics wants to study the relationship between income (y in $1000s)and education (x in years).A random sample eight individuals is taken and the results are shown below. Education 16 11 15 8 12 10 13 14 Income 58 40 55 35 43 41 52 49 -{Income and Education Narrative} Draw a scatter diagram of the data.Comment on whether it appears that a linear model might be appropriate.