Exam 16: A: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation

There is ____________________ error in estimating a mean than in predicting an individual value.

Allman Brothers Concert At a recent Allman Brothers concert,a survey was conducted that asked a random sample of 20 people their age and how many concerts they have attended since the first of the year.The following data were collected: Age 62 57 40 49 67 54 43 65 54 41 Number af Concerts 6 5 4 3 5 5 2 6 3 1 Age 44 48 55 60 59 63 69 40 38 52 Number af Concerts 3 2 4 5 4 5 4 2 1 3 An Excel output follows: -{Allman Brothers Concert Narrative} Draw a scatter diagram of the data.Comment on whether it appears that a linear model might be appropriate to describe the relationship between the age and number of concerts attended by the respondents.

A medical statistician wanted to examine the relationship between the amount of sunshine (x)and incidence of skin discolorations (y).As an experiment he found the number of skin discolorations detected per 100,000 of population and the average daily sunshine in eight counties around the country.These data are shown below. Average Daily Sumshine 5 7 6 7 8 6 4 3 Skin Discolorations per 100,000 7 11 9 12 15 10 7 5 Predict with 95% confidence the skin discolorations per 100,000 in a county with a daily average of 6.5 hours of sunshine.

Sunshine and Melanoma A medical researcher wanted to examine the relationship between the amount of sunshine (x)in hours,and incidence of melanoma,a type of skin cancer (y).As an experiment he found the number of melanoma cases detected per 100,000 of population and the average daily sunshine in eight counties around the country.These data are shown below. Average Daily Sunshine 5 7 6 7 8 6 4 3 Melanoma per 100,000 7 11 9 12 15 10 7 5 -{Sunshine and Melanoma Narrative} Estimate the number of skin cancer cases per 100,000 people who live in a state that gets 6 hours of sunshine on average.

Grateful Dead Concert At a recent Grateful Dead concert,a survey was conducted that asked a random sample of 20 people their age and how many concerts they have attended since the first of the year.It is suspected that older concert goers tend to go to more of his concerts in one year than younger concert goers.The data and analysis are shown below. AEe 62 57 40 49 67 54 43 65 54 41 Number af Concerts 6 5 4 3 5 5 2 6 3 1 Age 44 48 55 60 59 63 69 40 38 52 Number of Concerts 3 2 4 5 4 5 4 2 1 3 An Excel output follows: -{Grateful Dead Concert Narrative} Conduct a test of the population slope to determine at the 5% significance level whether a positive linear relationship exists between age and number of concerts attended.

Oil Quality and Price Quality of oil is measured in API gravity degrees--the higher the degrees API,the higher the quality.The table shown below is produced by an expert in the field who believes that there is a relationship between quality and price per barrel. $\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Oi degrees API } & \text { Price per barrel (in \$) } \\\hline 27.0 & 12.02 \\28.5 & 12.04 \\30.8 & 12.32 \\31.3 & 12.27 \\31.9 & 12.49 \\34.5 & 12.70 \\34.0 & 12.80 \\34.7 & 13.00 \\37.0 & 13.00 \\41.0 & 13.17 \\41.0 & 13.19 \\38.8 & 13.22 \\39.3 & 13.27 \\\hline\end{array}$ A partial Minitab output follows: Dascriptive atafistics Variable Mear StDev SE Mear Degrees 13 34.60 4.613 1.280 Price 13 1270 0.757 0.127 Covariances Degeres Price Degeres 21.281667 Price 2.026750 0.208933 Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F p Regeression 1 2.3162 2.3162 134.24 0.000 Resichul Entar 11 0.1898 0.0173 Total 12 2.5060 -If the coefficient of determination is 1.0,then the coefficient of correlation must be 1.0.

A prediction interval is used when we want to predict a one-time occurrence for a particular value of y when the independent variable is a given x value.

The vertical spread of the data points about the regression line is measured by the y-intercept.

If cov(x,y)= 1260, $s _ { x } ^ { 2 } = 1600$ ,and $s _ { y } ^ { 2 } = 1225$ ,then the coefficient of determination is:

Wayne Newton Concert At a recent Wayne Newton concert,a survey was conducted that asked a random sample of 20 people their age and how many concerts they have attended since the first of the year.The following data were collected: Age 62 57 40 49 67 54 43 65 54 41 Number af Concerts 6 5 4 3 5 5 2 6 3 1 Age 44 48 55 60 59 63 69 40 38 52 Number af Concerts 3 2 4 5 4 5 4 2 1 3 An Excel output follows: -{Oil Quality and Price Narrative} Estimate with 95% confidence the average oil price per barrel for an API degree of 35.

A zero population correlation coefficient for x and y means that there is no type of relationship whatsoever between x and y.

Cost of Textbooks The editor of a higher education book publisher claims that a large part of the cost of books is the cost of paper.This implies that larger textbooks will cost more money.As an experiment to analyze the claim,a university student visits the bookstore and records the number of pages and the selling price of twelve randomly selected textbooks.These data are listed below. $\begin{array} { | c | c | c | } \hline \text { Textbouk } & \text { Number af Peges } & \text { Selling Price (\$) } \\\hline 1 & 844 & 55 \\2 & 727 & 50 \\3 & 360 & 35 \\4 & 915 & 60 \\5 & 295 & 30 \\6 & 706 & 50 \\7 & 410 & 40 \\8 & 905 & 53 \\9 & 1058 & 65 \\10 & 865 & 54 \\11 & 677 & 42 \\12 & 912 & 58 \\\hline\end{array}$ -{Cost of Textbooks Narrative} Interpret the value of the slope of the regression line.

Oil Quality and Price Quality of oil is measured in API gravity degrees--the higher the degrees API,the higher the quality.The table shown below is produced by an expert in the field who believes that there is a relationship between quality and price per barrel. $\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Oi degrees API } & \text { Price per barrel (in \$) } \\\hline 27.0 & 12.02 \\28.5 & 12.04 \\30.8 & 12.32 \\31.3 & 12.27 \\31.9 & 12.49 \\34.5 & 12.70 \\34.0 & 12.80 \\34.7 & 13.00 \\37.0 & 13.00 \\41.0 & 13.17 \\41.0 & 13.19 \\38.8 & 13.22 \\39.3 & 13.27 \\\hline\end{array}$ A partial Minitab output follows: Dascriptive atafistics Variable Mear StDev SE Mear Degrees 13 34.60 4.613 1.280 Price 13 1270 0.757 0.127 Covariances Degeres Price Degeres 21.281667 Price 2.026750 0.208933 Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F p Regeression 1 2.3162 2.3162 134.24 0.000 Resichul Entar 11 0.1898 0.0173 Total 12 2.5060 -{Oil Quality and Price Narrative} Determine the least squares regression line.

Wayne Newton Concert At a recent Wayne Newton concert,a survey was conducted that asked a random sample of 20 people their age and how many concerts they have attended since the first of the year.The following data were collected: Age 62 57 40 49 67 54 43 65 54 41 Number af Concerts 6 5 4 3 5 5 2 6 3 1 Age 44 48 55 60 59 63 69 40 38 52 Number af Concerts 3 2 4 5 4 5 4 2 1 3 An Excel output follows: -{Oil Quality and Price Narrative} Which interval in the previous two questions is narrower: the confidence interval estimate of the expected value of y or the prediction interval for the same given value of x (10 years)and same confidence level? Why?

Movie Revenues A financier whose specialty is investing in movie productions has observed that,in general,movies with "big-name" stars seem to generate more revenue than those movies whose stars are less well known.To examine his belief he records the gross revenue and the payment (in $ millions)given to the two highest-paid performers in the movie for ten recently released movies. Movie Cost of Twa Highest Paid Perfarmers ( \mil ) Grass Revenue () 1 5.3 48 2 7.2 65 3 1.3 18 4 1.8 20 5 3.5 31 6 2.6 26 7 8.0 73 8 2.4 23 9 4.5 39 10 0.7 58 -{Cost of Books Narrative} Estimate with 90% confidence the average selling price of all books with 900 pages.

Trivia Games & Education An ardent fan of television game shows has observed that,in general,the more educated the contestant,the less money he or she wins.To test her belief she gathers data about the last eight winners of her favorite game show.She records their winnings in dollars and the number of years of education.The results are as follows. Contestant Years of Education Winnings 1 11 750 2 15 400 3 12 600 4 16 350 5 11 800 0 16 300 7 13 650 8 14 400 -{Trivia Games & Education Narrative} Interpret the value of the slope of the regression line.

In performing a regression analysis which of the following must be true about the distribution of the error variable?

A direct relationship between an independent variable x and a dependent variably y means that the variables x and y increase or decrease together.

Game Show Winnings & Education An ardent fan of television game shows has observed that,in general,the more educated the contestant,the less money he or she wins.To test her belief she gathers data about the last eight winners of her favorite game show.She records their winnings in dollars and the number of years of education.The results are as follows. Contestant Years of Education Winnings 1 11 750 2 15 400 3 12 600 4 16 350 5 11 800 0 16 300 7 13 650 8 14 400 -{Game Show Winnings & Education Narrative} Calculate the Pearson correlation coefficient.What sign does it have? Why?

If we are interested in determining whether two variables are linearly related,it is necessary to: