Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The year ________ has the forecast value 104.95.

Given: x_t (t = 1,2,…,n)is a seasonal time series of period s (s = 4 for quarterly data and s = 12 for monthly data). Assuming that s is even,how can a centered s-point moving average series, ,be obtained?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4. -Compute the sales forecast for the 1^st quarter of year 4.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -What is the original value of x² as a percentage of the centered 4-point moving average ?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -Determine the centered 4-point moving average for .

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The data values in the table below show quarterly sales of a corporation over a period of six years. -Use the seasonal index method to seasonally adjust this series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. -Which of the following has an approximate forecast of 270 units?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -Which of the following components describe the up and down movements of a time series that vary both in length and in intensity?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1934-1944. -Use a smoothing constant of 0.8 to show the table that shows all the error terms for the given series.

If we could characterize time series primarily in terms of trend,seasonal,and cyclical components,then the series would vary smoothly over time,and forecasts could be made using these components.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The Pyramids of Giza is one of the most visited monuments in Egypt.The number of visitors per quarter has been recorded (in thousands)as shown in the accompanying table: Year -Discuss why exponential smoothing is not recommended as a forecasting method in this case.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -How will you go about calculating the seasonal indices for the given time series?

Much of the early work in time-series analysis involves the construction of a formal model,in which various components either are explicitly or implicitly present,to describe the behavior of a data series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: Consider the following quarterly time series data. -Generate the Minitab output for the given time series using autoregressive forecasting for p = 3.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1934-1944. -If the forecaster uses an exponential smoothing constant of 0.8,show the steps involved in calculating the forecast for the year 1935.

Given a data set with 20 yearly observations,there are only twelve 9-year moving averages.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -Determine the sales forecast (in 000's)for the 4^th quarter of year 10.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -Compute the sales forecast (in 000's)for the 2^nd quarter of year 10.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1934-1944. -What is the forecast for the year 1945 if its real home price index is 98.056?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -Determine the value of mean absolute deviation.