Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -The forecast for week 13 is approximately:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -The sales forecast for the 4^th quarter of year 7 is approximately ________ in 000's.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1934-1944. -Assuming a smoothing constant of 0.8,find the error term for the year 1936.

A trend is a persistent pattern in annual time-series data that has to be followed for several years.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. -The autoregressive equation is:

Increasing the value of α from 0.025 to 0.10 in exponential smoothing will increase the weight to the most recent observation by 0.075.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4. -What is the sales forecast for the 3^rd quarter of year 4?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The data values in the table below show quarterly sales of a corporation over a period of six years. -Use the Holt-Winters seasonal method to obtain forecasts of sales up to eight quarters ahead.Employ smoothing constants α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. -________ has an approximate forecast of 250 units.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The data values in the table below show quarterly sales of a corporation over a period of six years. -The estimated true value of community water consumption is 800,000 gallons for a given month.Assume that the seasonal,cyclical,and irregular components are 80%,110%,and 130%,respectively,of normal usage.Use the multiplicative time series model in determining the quantity of water consumed during the month.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The data values in the table below show quarterly sales of a corporation over a period of six years. -For each of the following,indicate which time series is represented.Explain your reasoning. 1)The dean of the Woodbury School of Business at Utah valley university finds Friday is the most popular day of the week for professors' absence. 2)Political advertising in the United States peaks every 4 years. 3)Sales of a cholesterol medication decline after the product receives negative publicity in a medical journal article.

Autoregressive forecasting models assume that values in a time series are independent of one another.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4. -The value of mean square displacement is:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -The original value of x₅ as a percentage of the centered 4-point moving average is:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -The estimate of the level for week 2 is:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -What is the seasonal index for quarter 2?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The daily sales figures shown below have been recorded in a medium size insurance company. -Compute the three-day and five-day moving averages.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: Consider the following quarterly time series data. -Develop a centered 4- point moving average for this time series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4. -What is the value of mean absolute deviation?

We can smooth a time series using the method of moving averages,based on the idea that any large irregular component at any point in time will exert a smaller effect if we average the point with its immediate neighbors.