Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: Consider the following quarterly time series data. -Develop a seasonal index for this time series.

Exponential smoothing is appropriate when the series is nonseasonal and has no consistent upward or downward trend.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. -Determine the error term that corresponds to the 1^st quarter in year 1.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -After the seasonality component is removed in the given data set,what is the value of ?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -Compute the approximate forecast for week 12.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -The trend estimate for ________ is 49 approximately.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: Consider the following quarterly time series data. -Use the method of simple exponential smoothing to obtain forecasts for the next four quarters.Use a smoothing constant of α= 0.4.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The exponential smoothing method of forecasting is the most appropriate method for time series that exhibit:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. -Which of the following has no forecast?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The component in a time series that reflects a long-term,relatively smooth pattern or direction exhibited by a time series over a long time period (more than one year)is called the:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -Calculate the value of .

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The time series that reflects a wavelike pattern describing a long-term trend that is generally apparent over a number of years is called the:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The data values in the table below show quarterly sales of a corporation over a period of six years. -Construct a time plot of this series,and discuss its features.

The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing procedure allows only the trend component in a time series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -The estimate of the level for ________ is 453 units,approximately.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -In which component of the time series will the effect of an unpredictable,rare event be contained?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The Pyramids of Giza is one of the most visited monuments in Egypt.The number of visitors per quarter has been recorded (in thousands)as shown in the accompanying table: Year -Plot the time series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of Dragon Ball Z action figures in a toy store.The forecaster uses the double exponential smoothing model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.7 and β = 0.3 -What is the approximate sales forecast (in 000's)for the 3^rd quarter of year 8?

Simple exponential smoothing provides a forecast based on a weighted average of current and past values.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -Which of the following is the seasonally adjusted value for x₂₀?