Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -What is initial estimate of the trend value for week 2?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. -The number of forecast values determined is:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -What is the trend estimate for week 10?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1934-1944. -Consider the following time-series data.Develop the simple centered 5-point moving average for this series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The daily sales figures shown below have been recorded in a medium size insurance company. -The data values in the table below show an index of food prices,seasonally adjusted,over a period of 14 months in Germany. Use the Holt-Winters method with smoothing constants α = 0.5 and β =0.5 to obtain forecasts for the next 3 months.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a gifting store.The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters multiplicative model to determine the forecast for future periods. Given: α = 0.6,β = 0.5,and γ = 0.4. -Calculate the value of the mean absolute percentage error.

A time series is a:

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -Calculate the forecast value for the year 1905,if the real home price index for that year is 98.056.

The formula that explains simple exponential smoothing is _t = (1 - α) _t-1 + αx_t for 0 < α < 1.

The more modern approach to time-series analysis concentrates on the isolation of the individual components (trend,seasonality,cyclical,and irregular)from a series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -What is the centered 4-point moving average for ?

The first-order autoregressive model expresses the current value,x_t of a series in terms of the previous value,x_t-1 and a nonautocorrelated random variable ε_t.

The table below shows the weekly sales of umbrellas during the rainy season.How will you go about removing the irregularity component of this time series using the method of 4-point moving averages?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -Calculate the centered 4-point moving average for .

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -What is the approximate level estimate for week 8?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -How will you go about removing the irregularity component of this time series using the method of 4-point moving averages?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -If the forecast value, _t,at time t is a weighted average of the previous period forecast _t-1 and the latest observation _t,write the formula used to compute the simple exponential smoothing forecast.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -What is the value of ?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -Which of the following weeks has an approximate trend estimate of 68?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: Consider the following quarterly time series data. -Show the table with the forecast for each reading.