Exam 16: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -What is the seasonal index for quarter 3?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -What is the seasonally adjusted value for x₆?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1934-1944. -Identify the four components of a time series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -Determine the error for the forecast that corresponds to the year 1899.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the number of preorders received for a particular game on a weekly basis. The forecaster uses the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing for nonseasonal series to forecast the number of preorders in future time periods. He uses α = 0.8 and β = 0.5.(Hint: Use the formula from the text to arrive at the answers. ) -Which of the following weeks has a level estimate of 672 units approximately?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -The following are the values of a time series for the first four time periods: Using a four-period moving average,determine the forecasted value for time period 5.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the quarterly data of the Shiller Real Home Price Index.To remove the seasonality a centered 4-point moving average is used. -Which of the following is the value of ?

Seasonal patterns in a time series constitute one form of regular,oscillatory behavior.

Seasonality is a time-series component.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1894-1904. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.8 to determine the forecasts using simple exponential smoothing. -What is the forecast for the year 1896?

The irregular component of a time series exhibits a tendency to grow or decrease rather steadily over long periods of time.

The term seasonal variation may refer to the four traditional seasons,or to systematic patterns that occur during a month,a week,or even one day.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The daily sales figures shown below have been recorded in a medium size insurance company. -Plot the series and the moving averages on the same graph.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the corporate earnings percentage of an enterprise for 5 years. The company's forecaster uses the 4-period centered moving average to remove the seasonality component. -How do you remove the seasonality component from the given time series.

If a time series is rather smooth,we would use a large value for the smoothing constant α in order to give more weight to the most recent observation.

The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing procedure allows for trend,but not seasonality,in a time series.

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The daily sales figures shown below have been recorded in a medium size insurance company. -Does there appear to be a seasonal (weekly)pattern?

THE NEXT QUESTIONS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION: The table below shows the quarterly sales of a particular kind of vaccine for dogs.The forecaster uses autoregressive models with p = 3 to forecast the sales for future time periods. -Calculate the value of the sum of squared errors.