Exam 16: Analyzing and Forecasting Time-Series Data

The owners of Hal's Cookie Company have collected sales data for the past 8 months.These data are shown as follows: Using a starting forecast in period 1 of 100,the forecast bias over periods 2-8 is negative when a single exponential smoothing model is used with a smoothing constant of 0.20

(True/False)

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Question 21

If you suspect that your trend forecasting model may have autocorrelated forecast errors,which the following should you compute?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 22

In order for a time series to exhibit a seasonal component,the data must be measured in periods as short or shorter than quarterly.

(True/False)

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Question 23

Prior to conducting double exponential smoothing a simple linear regression is conducted and the trend equation is = 42 + 38.3t,so the smoothed constant process value should be C₀ = 38.3 and the smoothed trend value should be T₀ = 42.

(True/False)

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Question 24

In a simple exponential smoothing model,which of the following statements is true?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 25

A company has developed a linear trend regression model based on 16 quarters of data.The independent variable is the measure of time (t = 1 thru 16 where quarter 1 is winter quarter,2 is spring,etc. ).The company has also developed seasonal indexes for each quarter as follows: The linear trend forecast equation is: = 120 + 56t. Given this information,what is the seasonally unadjusted forecast for period 19?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 26

A seasonal index is a statistic that is computed from time-series data to indicate the effect of the seasonality in the time-series data.

(True/False)

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Question 27

In using simple linear regression to find the linear trend in an annual time series from 1990 to 2005,the values 1990,1991,etc.are used as the values of the independent variable t when the regression is conducted.

(True/False)

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Question 28

The Zocor Company is interested in forecasting period 13 sales for a product.It has 12 months of historical data.The following shows the data and the forecasted values for periods 1-12 using a single exponential smoothing model with a smoothing constant value equal to 0.20. Which of the following would be the forecast for period 13?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 29

An annual time series cannot exhibit a seasonal component.

(True/False)

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Question 30

In analyzing a forecast model,what is the main advantage of using the MAD instead of the MSE?

(Essay)

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Question 31

The Zocor Company is interested in forecasting period 13 sales for a product.It has 12 months of historical data.The following shows the data and the forecasted values for periods 1-12 using a single exponential smoothing model with a smoothing constant value equal to 0.20 What is the forecast bias value for the model over periods 2-12?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 32

Under which of the following conditions would you suggest that a double exponential smoothing model should be used instead of a single exponential smoothing model?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 33

Stock analysts have recently stated in a meeting on Wall Street that over the past 50 years there have been periods of high market prices followed by periods of lower prices but over time prices have moved upwards.Given their statement,stock prices most likely exhibit only trend and cyclical components.

(True/False)

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Question 34

A plot of the time series with time on the horizontal axis is an effective means of assessing whether the series is linear or nonlinear.

(True/False)

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Question 35

Which of the following approaches might be used to determine which value for the smoothing constant to use in a single exponential smoothing model?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 36

Which of the following statistical measures is used to help decision makers assess the potential for their model to provide usable forecasts?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 37

A company has recorded 12 months of sales data for the past year and has found the linear trend equation is = 286 + 64.9t.Based on this information,which of the following is the forecast for period 13?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 38

A time series is shown below.Perform single exponential smoothing for this data set using α = 0.2 What is the value of the forecast for period 6?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 39

Gibson,Inc.is a holding company that owns several businesses.One such business is a truck sales company.To help in managing this operation,managers at Gibson have collected sales data for the past 20 years showing the number of trucks sold each year.They have then developed the linear trend forecasting model shown as follows: Based on this information,it appears that the time series has a strong positive linear trend component.

(True/False)

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Question 40

Showing 21 - 40 of 133

The owners of Hal's Cookie Company have collected sales data for the past 8 months.These data are shown as follows: Using a starting forecast in period 1 of 100,the forecast bias over periods 2-8 is negative when a single exponential smoothing model is used with a smoothing constant of 0.20

If you suspect that your trend forecasting model may have autocorrelated forecast errors,which the following should you compute?

In order for a time series to exhibit a seasonal component,the data must be measured in periods as short or shorter than quarterly.

Prior to conducting double exponential smoothing a simple linear regression is conducted and the trend equation is = 42 + 38.3t,so the smoothed constant process value should be C₀ = 38.3 and the smoothed trend value should be T₀ = 42.

In a simple exponential smoothing model,which of the following statements is true?

A seasonal index is a statistic that is computed from time-series data to indicate the effect of the seasonality in the time-series data.

In using simple linear regression to find the linear trend in an annual time series from 1990 to 2005,the values 1990,1991,etc.are used as the values of the independent variable t when the regression is conducted.

An annual time series cannot exhibit a seasonal component.

In analyzing a forecast model,what is the main advantage of using the MAD instead of the MSE?

Under which of the following conditions would you suggest that a double exponential smoothing model should be used instead of a single exponential smoothing model?

A plot of the time series with time on the horizontal axis is an effective means of assessing whether the series is linear or nonlinear.

Which of the following approaches might be used to determine which value for the smoothing constant to use in a single exponential smoothing model?

Which of the following statistical measures is used to help decision makers assess the potential for their model to provide usable forecasts?

A company has recorded 12 months of sales data for the past year and has found the linear trend equation is = 286 + 64.9t.Based on this information,which of the following is the forecast for period 13?

A time series is shown below.Perform single exponential smoothing for this data set using α = 0.2 What is the value of the forecast for period 6?

The Where,Why,and How of Data Collection

Graphs,Charts and Tablesdescribing Your Data

Describing Data Using Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions

Introduction to Sampling Distributions

Estimating Single Population Parameters

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Two Population Parameters

Hypothesis Tests and Estimation for Population Variances

Analysis of Variance

Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Contingency Analysis

Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building

Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics

Introduction to Quality and Statistical Process Control

Filters

Exam 16: Analyzing and Forecasting Time-Series Data

The owners of Hal's Cookie Company have collected sales data for the past 8 months.These data are shown as follows: Using a starting forecast in period 1 of 100,the forecast bias over periods 2-8 is negative when a single exponential smoothing model is used with a smoothing constant of 0.20

If you suspect that your trend forecasting model may have autocorrelated forecast errors,which the following should you compute?

In order for a time series to exhibit a seasonal component,the data must be measured in periods as short or shorter than quarterly.

Prior to conducting double exponential smoothing a simple linear regression is conducted and the trend equation is = 42 + 38.3t,so the smoothed constant process value should be C0 = 38.3 and the smoothed trend value should be T0 = 42.

In a simple exponential smoothing model,which of the following statements is true?

A seasonal index is a statistic that is computed from time-series data to indicate the effect of the seasonality in the time-series data.

In using simple linear regression to find the linear trend in an annual time series from 1990 to 2005,the values 1990,1991,etc.are used as the values of the independent variable t when the regression is conducted.

An annual time series cannot exhibit a seasonal component.

In analyzing a forecast model,what is the main advantage of using the MAD instead of the MSE?

Under which of the following conditions would you suggest that a double exponential smoothing model should be used instead of a single exponential smoothing model?

A plot of the time series with time on the horizontal axis is an effective means of assessing whether the series is linear or nonlinear.

Which of the following approaches might be used to determine which value for the smoothing constant to use in a single exponential smoothing model?

Which of the following statistical measures is used to help decision makers assess the potential for their model to provide usable forecasts?

A company has recorded 12 months of sales data for the past year and has found the linear trend equation is = 286 + 64.9t.Based on this information,which of the following is the forecast for period 13?

A time series is shown below.Perform single exponential smoothing for this data set using α = 0.2 What is the value of the forecast for period 6?

The Where,Why,and How of Data Collection

Graphs,Charts and Tablesdescribing Your Data

Describing Data Using Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions

Introduction to Sampling Distributions

Estimating Single Population Parameters

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Two Population Parameters

Hypothesis Tests and Estimation for Population Variances

Analysis of Variance

Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Contingency Analysis

Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building

Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics

Introduction to Quality and Statistical Process Control

Filters

Prior to conducting double exponential smoothing a simple linear regression is conducted and the trend equation is = 42 + 38.3t,so the smoothed constant process value should be C₀ = 38.3 and the smoothed trend value should be T₀ = 42.