Question 1

After a linear forecasting model is found for a time series,if the Durbin-Watson statistic is less than dL this means that:

Accepted Answer

A) no positive autocorrelation exists,the linear model is adequate. 
B) positive autocorrelation exists,a nonlinear model should be tried. 
C) no positive autocorrelation exists,a nonlinear model should be tried. 
D) positive autocorrelation exists,the linear model is adequate. 
A) no positive autocorrelation exists,the linear model is adequate. 
B) positive autocorrelation exists,a nonlinear model should be tried. 
C) no positive autocorrelation exists,a nonlinear model should be tried. 
D) positive autocorrelation exists,the linear model is adequate.

Question 2

A time-series plot that exhibits a general increase in value from the early periods to the latest time periods:

Accepted Answer

A) most likely is exhibiting a cyclical component. 
B) has a trend component present in the data. 
C) will probably start to decline in a few periods. 
D) has a seasonal component present in the data 
A) most likely is exhibiting a cyclical component. 
B) has a trend component present in the data. 
C) will probably start to decline in a few periods. 
D) has a seasonal component present in the data

Question 3

To deseasonalize a time series,assuming a multiplicative model,the observed values are divided by the appropriate seasonal index.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

The Baker's Candy Company has been in business for three years.The quarterly sales data for the company are shown as follows:
   As a first step in computing a seasonal index,the four-period moving average corresponding to the mid-point between periods 2 and 3 is 3,350.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

To compare one value measured at one point in time with other values measured at different points in time,index numbers must be used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

If you suspect that your time-series data has a strong downward trend,you should set the beta smoothing constant at value fairly close to negative 1.0

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Recently,a manager for a major retailer computed the following seasonal indexes:
   Note that the index for Summer Qtr is missing.However,it can be determined that the index for that period is approximately 1.03

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

Which of the following is true regarding the MSE and MAD in forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) The MAD will tend to be a larger value than the MSE. 
B) The MSE is much more useful than the MAD. 
C) The square root of the MSE provides a value that will be similar to the MAD. 
D) The MAD will be equal to the MSE. 
A) The MAD will tend to be a larger value than the MSE. 
B) The MSE is much more useful than the MAD. 
C) The square root of the MSE provides a value that will be similar to the MAD. 
D) The MAD will be equal to the MSE.

Question 9

If time-series data exhibit a seasonal pattern,which of the following approaches could be used to compute season indexes?

Accepted Answer

A) The exponential smoothing technique 
B) The multiplicative model 
C) The Pearson product-moment approach 
D) None of the above 
A) The exponential smoothing technique 
B) The multiplicative model 
C) The Pearson product-moment approach 
D) None of the above

Question 10

The process of selecting the forecasting technique to use in a particular application is called:

Accepted Answer

A) model diagnosis. 
B) model specification. 
C) validity checking. 
D) model fitting. 
A) model diagnosis. 
B) model specification. 
C) validity checking. 
D) model fitting.

Question 11

One of the basic tools for creating a trend-based forecasting model is regression analysis.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

A company has recorded annual sales for the past 14 years and found the following linear trend model:   = 5.23 + 144.60t.This means that:

Accepted Answer

A) on average sales are increasing by of 5.23 per year. 
B) on average sales are increasing by of 144.6 per year. 
C) there is a seasonal component in the data. 
D) sales in year 1 were 5.23. 
A) on average sales are increasing by of 5.23 per year. 
B) on average sales are increasing by of 144.6 per year. 
C) there is a seasonal component in the data. 
D) sales in year 1 were 5.23.

Question 13

Given the following time series data:   and using smoothing constants of alpha = 0.3,the exponential smoothing forecast for time period 3 is

Accepted Answer

A) 18 
B) 19.2 
C) 20 
D) 40 
A) 18 
B) 19.2 
C) 20 
D) 40

Question 14

If a time-series plot indicates that the data do not appear to exhibit a trend,then a double exponential smoothing model would likely be the most appropriate to use rather than simple exponential smoothing model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

If the Durbin-Watson d statistic has a value close to 2,there is reason to believe that there is no autocorrelation between the forecast errors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

The Boxer Company has been in business since 1998.The following sales data are recorded by quarter for the years 2010-2012.   Which of the following time-series components are present in these data?

Accepted Answer

A) Trend component 
B) Seasonal component 
C) Random component 
D) All of the above 
A) Trend component 
B) Seasonal component 
C) Random component 
D) All of the above

Question 17

The Morgan Company is interested in developing a forecast for next month's sales.It has collected sales data for the past 12 months.
   After analyzing these data,if the company wishes to use exponential smoothing,it should employ a single smoothing model since there is evidence of a linear trend in the data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

The Wilson Company is interested in forecasting demand for its XG-667 product for quarter 13 based on 12 quarters of data.The following shows the data and the double exponential smoothing model results for periods 1-12 using alpha = 0.20 and beta = 0.40.   Based on this information,which of the following is the forecast for period 13?

Accepted Answer

A) About 1,345 
B) Just under 1,300 
C) Approximately 1,174 
D) Nearly 1,225 
A) About 1,345 
B) Just under 1,300 
C) Approximately 1,174 
D) Nearly 1,225

Question 19

In a time series with quarterly sales data,assume that the seasonal index for the summer quarter has been found to be 0.87,this can be interpreted to mean that sales tend to be 87 percent higher in the summer quarter when compared to the other quarters.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

An advantage of exponential smoothing techniques over a regression-based trend model is that the exponential smoothing model allows us to weigh each observation equally,thereby giving a fairer method of developing a forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

After a linear forecasting model is found for a time series,if the Durbin-Watson statistic is less than d_L this means that:

A time-series plot that exhibits a general increase in value from the early periods to the latest time periods:

To deseasonalize a time series,assuming a multiplicative model,the observed values are divided by the appropriate seasonal index.

The Baker's Candy Company has been in business for three years.The quarterly sales data for the company are shown as follows: As a first step in computing a seasonal index,the four-period moving average corresponding to the mid-point between periods 2 and 3 is 3,350.

To compare one value measured at one point in time with other values measured at different points in time,index numbers must be used.

If you suspect that your time-series data has a strong downward trend,you should set the beta smoothing constant at value fairly close to negative 1.0

Recently,a manager for a major retailer computed the following seasonal indexes: Note that the index for Summer Qtr is missing.However,it can be determined that the index for that period is approximately 1.03

Which of the following is true regarding the MSE and MAD in forecasting?

If time-series data exhibit a seasonal pattern,which of the following approaches could be used to compute season indexes?

The process of selecting the forecasting technique to use in a particular application is called:

One of the basic tools for creating a trend-based forecasting model is regression analysis.

A company has recorded annual sales for the past 14 years and found the following linear trend model: = 5.23 + 144.60t.This means that:

Given the following time series data: and using smoothing constants of alpha = 0.3,the exponential smoothing forecast for time period 3 is

If a time-series plot indicates that the data do not appear to exhibit a trend,then a double exponential smoothing model would likely be the most appropriate to use rather than simple exponential smoothing model.

If the Durbin-Watson d statistic has a value close to 2,there is reason to believe that there is no autocorrelation between the forecast errors.

The Boxer Company has been in business since 1998.The following sales data are recorded by quarter for the years 2010-2012. Which of the following time-series components are present in these data?

In a time series with quarterly sales data,assume that the seasonal index for the summer quarter has been found to be 0.87,this can be interpreted to mean that sales tend to be 87 percent higher in the summer quarter when compared to the other quarters.

An advantage of exponential smoothing techniques over a regression-based trend model is that the exponential smoothing model allows us to weigh each observation equally,thereby giving a fairer method of developing a forecast.

The Where,Why,and How of Data Collection

Graphs,Charts and Tablesdescribing Your Data

Describing Data Using Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions

Introduction to Sampling Distributions

Estimating Single Population Parameters

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Two Population Parameters

Hypothesis Tests and Estimation for Population Variances

Analysis of Variance

Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Contingency Analysis

Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building

Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics

Introduction to Quality and Statistical Process Control

Filters

Exam 16: Analyzing and Forecasting Time-Series Data

After a linear forecasting model is found for a time series,if the Durbin-Watson statistic is less than dL this means that:

A time-series plot that exhibits a general increase in value from the early periods to the latest time periods:

To deseasonalize a time series,assuming a multiplicative model,the observed values are divided by the appropriate seasonal index.

The Baker's Candy Company has been in business for three years.The quarterly sales data for the company are shown as follows: As a first step in computing a seasonal index,the four-period moving average corresponding to the mid-point between periods 2 and 3 is 3,350.

To compare one value measured at one point in time with other values measured at different points in time,index numbers must be used.

If you suspect that your time-series data has a strong downward trend,you should set the beta smoothing constant at value fairly close to negative 1.0

Recently,a manager for a major retailer computed the following seasonal indexes: Note that the index for Summer Qtr is missing.However,it can be determined that the index for that period is approximately 1.03

Which of the following is true regarding the MSE and MAD in forecasting?

If time-series data exhibit a seasonal pattern,which of the following approaches could be used to compute season indexes?

The process of selecting the forecasting technique to use in a particular application is called:

One of the basic tools for creating a trend-based forecasting model is regression analysis.

A company has recorded annual sales for the past 14 years and found the following linear trend model: = 5.23 + 144.60t.This means that:

Given the following time series data: and using smoothing constants of alpha = 0.3,the exponential smoothing forecast for time period 3 is

If a time-series plot indicates that the data do not appear to exhibit a trend,then a double exponential smoothing model would likely be the most appropriate to use rather than simple exponential smoothing model.

If the Durbin-Watson d statistic has a value close to 2,there is reason to believe that there is no autocorrelation between the forecast errors.

The Boxer Company has been in business since 1998.The following sales data are recorded by quarter for the years 2010-2012. Which of the following time-series components are present in these data?

In a time series with quarterly sales data,assume that the seasonal index for the summer quarter has been found to be 0.87,this can be interpreted to mean that sales tend to be 87 percent higher in the summer quarter when compared to the other quarters.

An advantage of exponential smoothing techniques over a regression-based trend model is that the exponential smoothing model allows us to weigh each observation equally,thereby giving a fairer method of developing a forecast.

The Where,Why,and How of Data Collection

Graphs,Charts and Tablesdescribing Your Data

Describing Data Using Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions

Introduction to Sampling Distributions

Estimating Single Population Parameters

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Two Population Parameters

Hypothesis Tests and Estimation for Population Variances

Analysis of Variance

Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Contingency Analysis

Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building

Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics

Introduction to Quality and Statistical Process Control

Filters

After a linear forecasting model is found for a time series,if the Durbin-Watson statistic is less than d_L this means that: