Question 1

The purpose of deseasonalizing a time series is that a strong seasonal pattern may make it difficult to see a trend in the time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

If a company has 12 years of annual sales data and is in need of a three-year forecast,which of the following forecasting techniques might be useful?

Accepted Answer

A) Forecast generalization 
B) Seasonality processing 
C) Regression-based trend forecasting 
D) Random component analysis 
A) Forecast generalization 
B) Seasonality processing 
C) Regression-based trend forecasting 
D) Random component analysis

Question 3

In establishing a single exponential smoothing forecasting model,a starting point for the forecast value for period 1 is required.One method for arriving at this starting point is to use the first data point as the forecast for that period.If we do that,then the first data point should be ignored when computing measures of forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

The Zocor Company is interested in forecasting period 13 sales for a product.It has 12 months of historical data.The following shows the data and the forecasted valued for periods 1-12 using a single exponential smoothing model with a smoothing constant value equal to 0.20.   What is the value of the MAD for periods 2-12?

Accepted Answer

A) About 19.6 
B) Nearly 6 
C) Approximately 15.4 
D) Can't be determined without more information 
A) About 19.6 
B) Nearly 6 
C) Approximately 15.4 
D) Can't be determined without more information

Question 5

The Boxer Company has been in business since 1998.The following sales data are recorded by quarter for the years 1999-2001.   The managers at the company wish to determine the seasonal indexes for each quarter during the year.The first step in the process is to remove the seasonal and random components.To do this,they will begin by computing a four-period moving average.They then compute the centered moving average.What is the centered moving average for Spring '01?

Accepted Answer

A) 97.5 
B) 11.50 
C) 89.0 
D) 100 
A) 97.5 
B) 11.50 
C) 89.0 
D) 100

Question 6

To deseasonalize a time series,assuming a multiplicative model,the observed values are divided by the appropriate seasonal index.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

You are given the following linear trend model: Ft = 345.60 - 200.5(t).
The forecast for period 15 is approximately -2,662.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

If the observed value in a time series for period 3 is yt = 128,and the seasonal index that applies to period 3 is 1.20,then the deseasonalized value for period 3 is 153.6.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

The time-series component that implies a long-term upward or downward pattern is called the trend component.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

In order for a time series to exhibit a seasonal component,the data must be measured in periods as short or shorter than quarterly.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

The Wilson Company is interested in forecasting demand for its XG-667 product for quarter 13 based on 12 quarters of data.The following shows the data and the double exponential smoothing model results for periods 1-12 using alpha = 0.20 and beta = 0.40.   Based on this information,which of the following is the forecast for period 13?

Accepted Answer

A) About 1,345 
B) Just under 1,300 
C) Approximately 1,174 
D) Nearly 1,225 
A) About 1,345 
B) Just under 1,300 
C) Approximately 1,174 
D) Nearly 1,225

Question 12

Recently,a manager for a major retailer computed the following seasonal indexes:   Note that the index for Summer Qtr is missing.However,it can be determined that the index for that period is approximately 1.03.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

In analyzing a forecast model,what is the main advantage of using the MAD instead of the MSE?

Accepted Answer

The MAD stands for mean absolute deviati

Question 14

In order to identify a cyclical component in time-series data,one year of weekly data should be sufficient.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

Herb Criner,an analyst for the Folgerty Company,recently gave a report in which he stated that the annual sales forecast based on 20 years of annual sales data was done using a seasonally adjusted,trend-based forecasting technique.Given the information presented here,this statement has the potential to be credible.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Recently,a manager for a major retailer computed the following seasonal indexes:   The manager then developed the following least squares trend model based on the past five years of quarterly data:   = 200 + 11.5t.Based on this,the seasonally adjusted forecast for quarter 25,which is the winter quarter,is 489.11.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

If a time series involves monthly data there will be a total of 12 seasonal indexes.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

The owners of Hal's Cookie Company have collected sales data for the past 8 months.These data are shown as follows:   Using a starting forecast in period 1 of 100,the forecast bias over periods 2-8 is negative when a single exponential smoothing model is used with a smoothing constant of 0.20.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

The Cresswell Company updates its annual sales forecast every month as new sales data becomes available.The one-month update is called:

Accepted Answer

A) the planning horizon. 
B) the forecast period. 
C) the forecast interval. 
D) the forecasting horizon. 
A) the planning horizon. 
B) the forecast period. 
C) the forecast interval. 
D) the forecasting horizon.

Question 20

The Boxer Company has been in business since 1998.The following sales data are recorded by quarter for the years 1999-2001.   The managers at the company wish to determine the seasonal indexes for each quarter during the year.The first step in the process is to remove the seasonal and random components.To do this,they will begin by computing a four-period moving average.They then compute the centered moving average.What is the next step in applying the multiplicative model?

Accepted Answer

A) Compute the grand mean 
B) Divide the centered moving average by the forecasted value 
C) Compute the ratio to moving average value 
D) Normalize the data 
A) Compute the grand mean 
B) Divide the centered moving average by the forecasted value 
C) Compute the ratio to moving average value 
D) Normalize the data

The purpose of deseasonalizing a time series is that a strong seasonal pattern may make it difficult to see a trend in the time series.

If a company has 12 years of annual sales data and is in need of a three-year forecast,which of the following forecasting techniques might be useful?

To deseasonalize a time series,assuming a multiplicative model,the observed values are divided by the appropriate seasonal index.

You are given the following linear trend model: F_t = 345.60 - 200.5(t). The forecast for period 15 is approximately -2,662.

If the observed value in a time series for period 3 is y_t = 128,and the seasonal index that applies to period 3 is 1.20,then the deseasonalized value for period 3 is 153.6.

The time-series component that implies a long-term upward or downward pattern is called the trend component.

In order for a time series to exhibit a seasonal component,the data must be measured in periods as short or shorter than quarterly.

Recently,a manager for a major retailer computed the following seasonal indexes: Note that the index for Summer Qtr is missing.However,it can be determined that the index for that period is approximately 1.03.

In analyzing a forecast model,what is the main advantage of using the MAD instead of the MSE?

In order to identify a cyclical component in time-series data,one year of weekly data should be sufficient.

If a time series involves monthly data there will be a total of 12 seasonal indexes.

The owners of Hal's Cookie Company have collected sales data for the past 8 months.These data are shown as follows: Using a starting forecast in period 1 of 100,the forecast bias over periods 2-8 is negative when a single exponential smoothing model is used with a smoothing constant of 0.20.

The Cresswell Company updates its annual sales forecast every month as new sales data becomes available.The one-month update is called:

The Where, why, and How of Data Collection

Graphs,charts and Tablesdescribing Your Data

Describing Data Using Numerical Measures

Using Probability and Probability Distributions

Discrete Probability Distributions

Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions

Introduction to Sampling Distributions

Estimating Single Population Parameters

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Two Population Parameters

Hypothesis Tests and Estimation for Population Variances

Analysis of Variance

Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Contingency Analysis

Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building

Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics

Introduction to Quality and Statistical Process Control

Introduction to Decision Analysis

Filters

Exam 16: Analyzing and Forecasting Time-Series Data

The purpose of deseasonalizing a time series is that a strong seasonal pattern may make it difficult to see a trend in the time series.

If a company has 12 years of annual sales data and is in need of a three-year forecast,which of the following forecasting techniques might be useful?

To deseasonalize a time series,assuming a multiplicative model,the observed values are divided by the appropriate seasonal index.

You are given the following linear trend model: Ft = 345.60 - 200.5(t). The forecast for period 15 is approximately -2,662.

If the observed value in a time series for period 3 is yt = 128,and the seasonal index that applies to period 3 is 1.20,then the deseasonalized value for period 3 is 153.6.

The time-series component that implies a long-term upward or downward pattern is called the trend component.

In order for a time series to exhibit a seasonal component,the data must be measured in periods as short or shorter than quarterly.

Recently,a manager for a major retailer computed the following seasonal indexes: Note that the index for Summer Qtr is missing.However,it can be determined that the index for that period is approximately 1.03.

In analyzing a forecast model,what is the main advantage of using the MAD instead of the MSE?

In order to identify a cyclical component in time-series data,one year of weekly data should be sufficient.

If a time series involves monthly data there will be a total of 12 seasonal indexes.

The owners of Hal's Cookie Company have collected sales data for the past 8 months.These data are shown as follows: Using a starting forecast in period 1 of 100,the forecast bias over periods 2-8 is negative when a single exponential smoothing model is used with a smoothing constant of 0.20.

The Cresswell Company updates its annual sales forecast every month as new sales data becomes available.The one-month update is called:

The Where, why, and How of Data Collection

Graphs,charts and Tablesdescribing Your Data

Describing Data Using Numerical Measures

Using Probability and Probability Distributions

Discrete Probability Distributions

Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions

Introduction to Sampling Distributions

Estimating Single Population Parameters

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Two Population Parameters

Hypothesis Tests and Estimation for Population Variances

Analysis of Variance

Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Contingency Analysis

Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building

Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics

Introduction to Quality and Statistical Process Control

Introduction to Decision Analysis

Filters

You are given the following linear trend model: F_t = 345.60 - 200.5(t). The forecast for period 15 is approximately -2,662.

If the observed value in a time series for period 3 is y_t = 128,and the seasonal index that applies to period 3 is 1.20,then the deseasonalized value for period 3 is 153.6.