Exam 27: Simulation

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A simulation is "Monte Carlo" when the elements of a system being simulated exhibit chance in their behavior.

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Simulation allows managers to test the effects of major policy decisions on real-life systems without disturbing the real system.

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One reason for using simulation rather than an analytical model in an inventory problem is that the simulation is able to handle probabilistic demand and lead times.

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A distribution of service times at a waiting line indicates that service takes 6 minutes 30 percent of the time,7 minutes 40 percent of the time,8 minutes 20 percent of the time,and 9 minutes 10 percent of the time.In preparing this distribution for Monte Carlo analysis,the service time of 8 minutes would be represented by what random number range?

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Define simulation.

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One of the disadvantages of simulation is that it:

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The idea behind simulation is threefold: (1)to imitate a real-world situation mathematically,(2)then to study its properties and operating characteristics,and (3)finally to draw conclusions and make action decisions based on the results of the simulation.

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Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation.The expected demand is 3.52. Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation.The expected demand is 3.52.

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A warehouse manager needs to simulate the demand placed on a product that does not fit standard models.The concept being measured is "demand during lead time," where both lead time and daily demand are variable.The historical record for this product suggests the following probability distribution.Convert this distribution into random number intervals. A warehouse manager needs to simulate the demand placed on a product that does not fit standard models.The concept being measured is demand during lead time, where both lead time and daily demand are variable.The historical record for this product suggests the following probability distribution.Convert this distribution into random number intervals.

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Random number intervals are based on cumulative probability distributions.

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One of the disadvantages of simulation is that it:

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From a portion of a probability distribution,you read that P(demand = 0)is 0.05 and P(demand = 1)is 0.10.The cumulative probability for demand = 1 would be which of the following?

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Simulation may be capable of producing a more appropriate answer to a complex problem than can be obtained from a mathematical model.

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Setting up a probability distribution,building a cumulative probability distribution,and generating random numbers are:

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Historical records on a certain product indicate the following behavior for demand.The data represent the 288 days that the business was open during 2000.Convert these data into random number intervals.(Round each probability used to 2 decimal places,e.g.,0.36) Historical records on a certain product indicate the following behavior for demand.The data represent the 288 days that the business was open during 2000.Convert these data into random number intervals.(Round each probability used to 2 decimal places,e.g.,0.36)

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