Question 1

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) 0 
B) 1 divided by the number of periods 
C) 0.5 
D) 1.0 
E) cannot be determined 
A) 0 
B) 1 divided by the number of periods 
C) 0.5 
D) 1.0 
E) cannot be determined

Question 2

A management analyst is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at an upscale branch of a department store chain.Given an actual number of returns of 154 items in the most recent period completed,a forecast of 172 items for that period,and a smoothing constant of 0.3,what is the forecast for the next period? How would the forecast be changed if the smoothing constant were 0.6? Explain the difference in terms of alpha and responsiveness.

Accepted Answer

166.6;161.2 The larger the smo

Question 3

Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?

Accepted Answer

A) naïve approach 
B) moving average approach 
C) weighted moving average approach 
D) exponential smoothing approach 
E) trend projection 
A) naïve approach 
B) moving average approach 
C) weighted moving average approach 
D) exponential smoothing approach 
E) trend projection

Question 4

Which of the following is NOT a step in the forecasting process?

Accepted Answer

A) Determine the use of the forecast. 
B) Eliminate any assumptions. 
C) Determine the time horizon of the forecast. 
D) Select the forecasting model. 
E) Validate and implement the results. 
A) Determine the use of the forecast. 
B) Eliminate any assumptions. 
C) Determine the time horizon of the forecast. 
D) Select the forecasting model. 
E) Validate and implement the results.

Question 5

Simple ________ forecasts only work well if we can assume that market demands will stay fairly steady over time.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Simple ________ forecasts only work well if...

Question 6

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:

Accepted Answer

A) long-range forecast. 
B) medium-range forecast. 
C) short-range forecast. 
D) weather forecast. 
E) strategic forecast. 
A) long-range forecast. 
B) medium-range forecast. 
C) short-range forecast. 
D) weather forecast. 
E) strategic forecast.

Question 8

Which of the following is not present in a time series?

Accepted Answer

A) seasonality 
B) operational variations 
C) trend 
D) cycles 
E) random variations 
A) seasonality 
B) operational variations 
C) trend 
D) cycles 
E) random variations

Question 9

Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are provided in the table below.Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5,6,and 7.Compute the MAD for both forecasting methods.Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method.
Week Sales (cases)
1 17
2 21
3 27
4 31
5 19
6 17
7 21

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& The MAD for the 3-week moving average i

Question 10

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's,and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week,business at the barbershop is subject to ________.

Accepted Answer

seasonal v

Question 11

________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ forecasts use a series of past...

Question 12

Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk,packages them,and sells them to retail stores.The managers are conducting an inventory control study of all their items.The following data are for one such item,which is not seasonal.
a.Use a trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the equation).
b.Calculate forecasts for the first four months of the next year.

Accepted Answer

The trend projection equation

Question 13

Forecasts of individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1x.What is your forecast for period 7?

Accepted Answer

A) 23.2 
B) 25.3 
C) 27.4 
D) 40.0 
E) 179.2 
A) 23.2 
B) 25.3 
C) 27.4 
D) 40.0 
E) 179.2

Question 15

Marie Bain is the production manager at a company that manufactures hot water heaters.Marie needs a demand forecast for the next few years to help decide whether to add new production capacity.The company's sales history (in thousands of units)is shown in the table below.Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 6.The initial forecast for period 1 was 11 units;the initial estimate of trend was 0.The smoothing constants are α = .3 and β = .3

Accepted Answer

The answer of Marie Bain is the production manager at...

Question 16

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting)for its planning purposes?

Accepted Answer

A) job scheduling 
B) production levels 
C) cash budgeting 
D) capital expenditures 
E) purchasing 
A) job scheduling 
B) production levels 
C) cash budgeting 
D) capital expenditures 
E) purchasing

Question 17

As compared to long-range forecasts,short-range forecasts:

Accepted Answer

A) are less accurate. 
B) deal with less comprehensive issues supporting management decisions. 
C) employ similar methodologies. 
D) all of the above 
E) none of the above 
A) are less accurate. 
B) deal with less comprehensive issues supporting management decisions. 
C) employ similar methodologies. 
D) all of the above 
E) none of the above

Question 18

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months.What is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A) -0.2 
B) -1.0 
C) 0.0 
D) 1.2 
E) 8.6 
A) -0.2 
B) -1.0 
C) 0.0 
D) 1.2 
E) 8.6

Question 19

The tracking signal is the:

Accepted Answer

A) standard error of the estimate. 
B) absolute deviation of the last period's forecast. 
C) MAD. 
D) ratio of cumulative error / MAD. 
E) MAPE. 
A) standard error of the estimate. 
B) absolute deviation of the last period's forecast. 
C) MAD. 
D) ratio of cumulative error / MAD. 
E) MAPE.

Question 20

Name and discuss three qualitative forecasting methods.

Accepted Answer

Qualitative forecasting methods include:

Exam 4: Forecasting Demand

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most recent period's demand?

Which of the following is NOT a step in the forecasting process?

Simple ________ forecasts only work well if we can assume that market demands will stay fairly steady over time.

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:

Which of the following is not present in a time series?

If a barbershop operator noted that Tuesday's business was typically twice as heavy as Wednesday's,and that Friday's business was typically the busiest of the week,business at the barbershop is subject to ________.

________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

Forecasts of individual products tend to be more accurate than forecasts of product families.

A time-series trend equation is 25.3 + 2.1x.What is your forecast for period 7?

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting)for its planning purposes?

As compared to long-range forecasts,short-range forecasts:

A forecasting method has produced the following over the past five months.What is the mean absolute deviation?

The tracking signal is the:

Name and discuss three qualitative forecasting methods.

Operations and Productivity

The Global Environment and Operations Strategy

Managing Projects

Product Design

Quality Management and International Standards

Process Design

Location Decisions

Layout Decisions

Job Design and Work Measurement

Supply Chain Management

Managing Inventory

Aggregate Scheduling

Material Requirements Planning Mrpand Erp

Scheduling for the Short-Term

Jit,lean Operations,and the Toyota Production System

Maintenance and Reliability Decisions

Sustainability

Statistical Process Control

Capacity Planning

Supply Chain Modeling

Decision Modeling

Linear Programming Models

Transportation Modeling

Queuing Models

Learning Curves

Modeling with Simulation

Filters