Question 1

What is the difference between an associative model and a time-series model?

Accepted Answer

A time-series model uses only historical values of the quantity of interest to predict future values of that quantity. The associative model, on the other hand, attempts to identify underlying factors that control the variation of the quantity of interest, predict future values of these factors, and use these predictions in a model to predict future values of the specific quantity of interest.

Question 2

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Accepted Answer

A)  640 units 
B)  798.75 units 
C)  801.25 units 
D)  1000 units 
E)  88.33 units 
A)  640 units 
B)  798.75 units 
C)  801.25 units 
D)  1000 units 
E)  88.33 units D

Question 3

What is focus forecasting?

Accepted Answer

It is a forecasting method that tries a variety of computer models, and selects the one that is best for a particular application.

Question 4

A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Accepted Answer

Any three of: planning new pro

Question 5

When one constant is used to smooth the forecast average and a second constant is used to smooth the trend, the forecasting method is __________.

Accepted Answer

exponential smoothing with tre

Question 6

The following trend projection is used to predict quarterly demand: Y = 250 - 2.5t, where t = 1 in the first quarter. Seasonal (quarterly) indices are Quarter 1 = 1.5; Quarter 2 = 0.8; Quarter 3 = 1.1; and Quarter 4 = 0.6. What is the seasonally adjusted forecast for the next four quarters?

Accepted Answer

Quarter Projection A

Question 7

Which time-series model uses past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  naive 
B)  moving average 
C)  weighted moving average 
D)  exponential smoothing 
E)  regression analysis 
A)  naive 
B)  moving average 
C)  weighted moving average 
D)  exponential smoothing 
E)  regression analysis

Question 8

Give an example-other than a restaurant or other food-service firm-of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern. (That is, each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day.) Explain.

Accepted Answer

Answer will vary. Ho

Question 9

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes?

Accepted Answer

A)  job scheduling 
B)  production levels 
C)  cash budgeting 
D)  capital expenditures 
E)  purchasing 
A)  job scheduling 
B)  production levels 
C)  cash budgeting 
D)  capital expenditures 
E)  purchasing

Question 10

A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that

Accepted Answer

A)  trend projection uses least squares while linear regression does not 
B)  only linear regression can have a negative slope 
C)  in trend projection the independent variable is time; in linear regression the independent variable need not be time, but can be any variable with explanatory power 
D)  trend projection can be a function of several variables, while linear regression can only be a function of one variable 
E)  trend projection uses two smoothing constants, not just one 
A)  trend projection uses least squares while linear regression does not 
B)  only linear regression can have a negative slope 
C)  in trend projection the independent variable is time; in linear regression the independent variable need not be time, but can be any variable with explanatory power 
D)  trend projection can be a function of several variables, while linear regression can only be a function of one variable 
E)  trend projection uses two smoothing constants, not just one

Question 11

The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the

Accepted Answer

A)  duration of the repeating patterns 
B)  magnitude of the variation 
C)  ability to attribute the pattern to a cause 
D)  all of the above 
E)  none of the above 
A)  duration of the repeating patterns 
B)  magnitude of the variation 
C)  ability to attribute the pattern to a cause 
D)  all of the above 
E)  none of the above

Question 12

__________ is a forecasting technique based upon salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

Accepted Answer

Sales forc

Question 13

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

__________ forecasts are concerned with rates of technological progress, which can result in the birth of exciting new products, requiring new plants and equipment.

Accepted Answer

The answer of __________ forecasts are concerned with rates of...

Question 15

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Accepted Answer

Any three of: planning purchas

Question 16

The two general approaches to forecasting are

Accepted Answer

A)  qualitative and quantitative 
B)  mathematical and statistical 
C)  judgmental and qualitative 
D)  historical and associative 
E)  judgmental and associative 
A)  qualitative and quantitative 
B)  mathematical and statistical 
C)  judgmental and qualitative 
D)  historical and associative 
E)  judgmental and associative

Question 17

Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents?

Accepted Answer

A)  executive opinions 
B)  sales force composites 
C)  the Delphi method 
D)  associative models 
E)  time series analysis 
A)  executive opinions 
B)  sales force composites 
C)  the Delphi method 
D)  associative models 
E)  time series analysis

Question 18

__________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values, undistorted by a single large value.

Accepted Answer

A)  MAD 
B)  MSE 
C)  MAPE 
D)  FIT 
E)  The smoothing constant 
A)  MAD 
B)  MSE 
C)  MAPE 
D)  FIT 
E)  The smoothing constant

Question 19

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n)

Accepted Answer

A)  qualitative forecast 
B)  naive forecast 
C)  moving average forecast 
D)  weighted moving average forecast 
E)  exponentially smoothed forecast 
A)  qualitative forecast 
B)  naive forecast 
C)  moving average forecast 
D)  weighted moving average forecast 
E)  exponentially smoothed forecast

Question 20

Identify the seven steps involved in forecasting.

Accepted Answer

1. Determine the use of the forecast.
2.

Exam 4: Forecasting

What is the difference between an associative model and a time-series model?

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 800 units per month, averaged over all 12 months of the year. The product follows a seasonal pattern, for which the January monthly index is 1.25. What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

What is focus forecasting?

A skeptical manager asks what long-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

When one constant is used to smooth the forecast average and a second constant is used to smooth the trend, the forecasting method is __________.

The following trend projection is used to predict quarterly demand: Y = 250 - 2.5t, where t = 1 in the first quarter. Seasonal (quarterly) indices are Quarter 1 = 1.5; Quarter 2 = 0.8; Quarter 3 = 1.1; and Quarter 4 = 0.6. What is the seasonally adjusted forecast for the next four quarters?

Which time-series model uses past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

Give an example-other than a restaurant or other food-service firm-of an organization that experiences an hourly seasonal pattern. (That is, each hour of the day has a pattern that tends to repeat day after day.) Explain.

Which of the following most requires long-range forecasting (as opposed to short-range or medium-range forecasting) for its planning purposes?

A fundamental distinction between trend projection and linear regression is that

The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the

__________ is a forecasting technique based upon salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

The quarterly "make meeting" of Lexus dealers is an example of a sales force composite forecast.

__________ forecasts are concerned with rates of technological progress, which can result in the birth of exciting new products, requiring new plants and equipment.

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for. Give her three possible uses/purposes.

The two general approaches to forecasting are

Which of the following uses three types of participants: decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents?

__________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values, undistorted by a single large value.

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is a(n)

Identify the seven steps involved in forecasting.

Operations and Productivity

Operations Strategy in a Global Environment

Project Management

Design of Goods and Services

Managing Quality

Process Strategy

Location Strategies

Layout Strategies

Human Resources, Job Design, and Work Measurement

Supply-Chain Management

Inventory Management

Aggregate Planning

Material Requirements Planning Mrp and Erp

Short-Term Scheduling

Just-In-Time and Lean Options

Maintenance and Reliability

Statistical Tools for Managers

Acceptance Sampling

The Simplex Method of Linear Programming

The Modi and Vam Methods of Solving Transportation Problems

Vehicle Routing and Scheduling

Managing Quality

Process Strategy

Supply-Chain Management

Vehicle Routing and Scheduling

Filters