Question 1

Identify four components of a time series. Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so?

Accepted Answer

Trend, seasonality, cycles, an

Question 2

A(n) __________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A(n) __________ forecast uses an average of...

Question 3

If a forecast is consistently greater than (or less than) actual values, the forecast is said to be biased.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

Compare seasonal effects and cyclical effects.

Accepted Answer

A cycle is longer (typically s

Question 5

Taco Bell's unique employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using

Accepted Answer

A)  point-of-sale computers to track food sales in 15 minute intervals 
B)  focus forecasting 
C)  a six-week moving average forecasting technique 
D)  multiple regression 
E)  A and C are both correct. 
A)  point-of-sale computers to track food sales in 15 minute intervals 
B)  focus forecasting 
C)  a six-week moving average forecasting technique 
D)  multiple regression 
E)  A and C are both correct.

Question 6

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach, but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data, he should

Accepted Answer

A)  use weights to place more emphasis on recent data 
B)  use weights to minimize the importance of the trend 
C)  change to a naïve approach 
D)  use a simple moving average 
E)  change to a qualitative approach 
A)  use weights to place more emphasis on recent data 
B)  use weights to minimize the importance of the trend 
C)  change to a naïve approach 
D)  use a simple moving average 
E)  change to a qualitative approach

Question 7

The last four months of sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units. The last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11, and 12 units. The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is

Accepted Answer

A)  2 
B)  -10 
C)  3.5 
D)  9 
E)  10.5 
A)  2 
B)  -10 
C)  3.5 
D)  9 
E)  10.5

Question 8

__________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

Accepted Answer

The answer of __________ forecasts use a series of past...

Question 9

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

A)  smoothes random variations in the data 
B)  easily altered weighting scheme 
C)  weights each historical value equally 
D)  has minimal data storage requirements 
E)  None of the above; they are all characteristics of exponential smoothing. 
A)  smoothes random variations in the data 
B)  easily altered weighting scheme 
C)  weights each historical value equally 
D)  has minimal data storage requirements 
E)  None of the above; they are all characteristics of exponential smoothing.

Question 10

Explain the role of regression models (time series and otherwise) in forecasting. That is, how is trend projection able to forecast? How is regression used for causal forecasting?

Accepted Answer

For trend projection, the independent va

Question 11

In trend projection, a negative regression slope is mathematically impossible.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table. Compute the four seasonal factors.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The quarterly sales for specific educational software...

Question 13

Seasonal indices adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?

Accepted Answer

A)  It is based on the assumption that future demand will be the same as past demand. 
B)  It makes extensive use of the data collected in the qualitative approach. 
C)  It is based on the assumption that the analysis of past demand helps predict future demand. 
D)  Because it accounts for trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, it is always more powerful than associative forecasting. 
E)  All of the above are true. 
A)  It is based on the assumption that future demand will be the same as past demand. 
B)  It makes extensive use of the data collected in the qualitative approach. 
C)  It is based on the assumption that the analysis of past demand helps predict future demand. 
D)  Because it accounts for trends, cycles, and seasonal patterns, it is always more powerful than associative forecasting. 
E)  All of the above are true.

Question 15

Suppose that demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units. Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units. If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20, what should be the forecast for period 3? (Round answers to two decimal places.)

Accepted Answer

A)  9.00 
B)  3.72 
C)  9.48 
D)  5.00 
E)  6.12 
A)  9.00 
B)  3.72 
C)  9.48 
D)  5.00 
E)  6.12

Question 16

The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local department store. Calculate the MAD for the manager's forecast. Compare the manager's forecast against a naive forecast. Which is better?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& The manager's forecast has a

Question 17

Demand forecasts, also called __________ forecasts, are projections of demand for a company's products or services.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Demand forecasts, also called __________ forecasts, are...

Question 18

Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A)  executive opinions 
B)  sales force composites 
C)  consumer surveys 
D)  the Delphi method 
E)  moving average 
A)  executive opinions 
B)  sales force composites 
C)  consumer surveys 
D)  the Delphi method 
E)  moving average

Question 19

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  0 
B)  1 divided by the number of periods 
C)  0.5 
D)  1.0 
E)  cannot be determined 
A)  0 
B)  1 divided by the number of periods 
C)  0.5 
D)  1.0 
E)  cannot be determined

Question 20

Name and discuss three qualitative forecasting methods.

Accepted Answer

Qualitative forecasting methods include:

Exam 4: Forecasting

Identify four components of a time series. Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so?

A(n) __________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

If a forecast is consistently greater than (or less than) actual values, the forecast is said to be biased.

Compare seasonal effects and cyclical effects.

Taco Bell's unique employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using

If Brandon Edward were working to develop a forecast using a moving averages approach, but he noticed a detectable trend in the historical data, he should

The last four months of sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units. The last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11, and 12 units. The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is

__________ forecasts use a series of past data points to make a forecast.

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?

Explain the role of regression models (time series and otherwise) in forecasting. That is, how is trend projection able to forecast? How is regression used for causal forecasting?

In trend projection, a negative regression slope is mathematically impossible.

The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table. Compute the four seasonal factors.

Seasonal indices adjust raw data for patterns that repeat at regular time intervals.

Which of the following statements about time-series forecasting is true?

Suppose that demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units. Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units. If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20, what should be the forecast for period 3? (Round answers to two decimal places.)

The department manager using a combination of methods has forecast sales of toasters at a local department store. Calculate the MAD for the manager's forecast. Compare the manager's forecast against a naive forecast. Which is better?

Demand forecasts, also called __________ forecasts, are projections of demand for a company's products or services.

Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Name and discuss three qualitative forecasting methods.

Operations and Productivity

Operations Strategy in a Global Environment

Project Management

Design of Goods and Services

Managing Quality

Process Strategy

Location Strategies

Layout Strategies

Human Resources, Job Design, and Work Measurement

Supply-Chain Management

Inventory Management

Aggregate Planning

Material Requirements Planning Mrp and Erp

Short-Term Scheduling

Just-In-Time and Lean Options

Maintenance and Reliability

Statistical Tools for Managers

Acceptance Sampling

The Simplex Method of Linear Programming

The Modi and Vam Methods of Solving Transportation Problems

Vehicle Routing and Scheduling

Managing Quality

Process Strategy

Supply-Chain Management

Vehicle Routing and Scheduling

Filters