Exam 4: Forecasting

Which time-series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month,averaged over all 12 months of the year.The product follows a seasonal pattern,for which the January monthly index is 1.25.What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Name and discuss three qualitative forecasting methods.

Forecasts are usually classified by time horizon into which three categories?

Cycles and random variations are both components of time series.

Identify four quantitative forecasting methods.

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:

Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local organic food market are provided in the table below.Based on these data,forecast week 9 using a five-week moving average. Week Sales 1 415 2 389 3 420 4 382 5 410 6 432 7 405 8 421

The sales force composite forecasting method relies on salespersons' estimates of expected sales.

Describe the three forecasting time horizons and their use.

Linear regression is known as a(n)________ model because it incorporates variables or factors that might influence the quantity being forecast.

The last seven weeks of demand at a new car dealer are shown below.Use a three-period weighted-moving average forecast to determine a forecast for the 8^th week using weights of 3,2,and 1 (where the most recent week receives the highest weight).(Round all forecasts to the nearest whole unit. )Calculate the MAD for this forecast (covering all weeks in which error comparisons can be made).What does the MAD indicate? Week Sales 1 25 2 30 3 27 4 31 5 27 6 29 7 30

A restaurant has tracked the number of meals served at lunch over the last four weeks.The data show little in terms of trends,but do display substantial variation by day of the week.Use the following information to determine the seasonal (daily)indices for this restaurant.

A measure of forecast error that does not depend upon the magnitude of the item being forecast is the ________.

What are the differences between quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods?

What is the forecast for May based on a weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 4,3,2 (largest weight is for most recent data)?

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates,money supplies,housing starts,and other planning indicators.

The degree or strength of a relationship between two variables is shown by the:

If two variables were perfectly correlated,what would the coefficient of correlation r equal?

Given the following data,calculate the three-year moving averages for years 4 through 10.