Exam 27: Simulation

A distribution of lead times in an inventory problem indicates that lead time was 1 day 20 percent of the time,2 days 30 percent of the time,3 days 30 percent of the time,and 4 days 20 percent of the time.This distribution has been prepared for Monte Carlo analysis.The first four random numbers drawn are 06,63,57,and 02.What is the average lead time of this simulation?

A distribution of service times at a waiting line shows that service takes 6 minutes 30 percent of the time,7 minutes 40 percent of the time,8 minutes 20 percent of the time,and 9 minutes 10 percent of the time.This distribution has been prepared for Monte Carlo analysis.The first two random numbers drawn are 53 and 74.The simulated service times are ________ minutes,then ________ minutes.

Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation.The expected demand is 3.52.

The Las Vegas method is a simulation technique that uses random elements when chance exists in their behavior.

From a portion of a probability distribution,you read that P(demand = 0)is 0.25,and P(demand = 1)is 0.30.What are the random number intervals for this distribution beginning with 01?

Simulation may be capable of producing a more appropriate answer to a complex problem than can be obtained from a mathematical model.

What is the cumulative probability of selling 4 tires?

Results of simulation experiments with large numbers of trials or long experimental runs will generally be better than those with fewer trials or shorter experimental runs.

Define simulation.

Explain what is meant by the statement: "simulation is not limited to using the standard probability distributions."

Sam's hardware store has an order policy of ordering 12 gallons of a specific primer whenever 7 gallons are on hand (unless there's already an ordered delivery due).The store would like to see how well their policy works.Assume that beginning inventory in period 1 is 10 gallons and that orders are placed at the end of the week to be received one week later.(In other words,if an order is placed at the end of week one,it is available at the beginning of week 3. )Assume that if inventory is not on hand,it will result in a lost sale.The weekly demand distribution obtained from past sales is found in the table below.Also,use the random numbers that are provided and simulate 10 weeks' worth of sales.How many sales are lost? Random numbers for sales: 37,60,79,21,85,71,48,39,31,35

One reason for using simulation rather than an analytical model in an inventory problem is that the simulation is able to handle probabilistic demand and lead times.

Provide a small example illustrating how random numbers are used in Monte Carlo simulation.

The numbers used to represent each possible value or outcome in a computer simulation are referred to as ________.

Complete the following table in preparation for a Monte Carlo simulation.

Setting up a probability distribution,building a cumulative probability distribution,and generating random numbers are:

What are the advantages and disadvantages of simulation models?

The effects of operations management policies over many months or years can be obtained by computer simulation in a short time.What is this phenomenon called?

Explain the difference between random numbers and random number intervals.

Julie's Diamond Boutique is very concerned with its order policies related to one-carat diamond solitaires.Their current policy is to order 10 diamonds whenever their inventory reaches 6 diamonds (unless there is already an ordered delivery due).Currently there are 8 diamonds on hand.Orders are placed at the end of the month and take one month to arrive .The following distribution of monthly sales has been developed using historical sales.If Julie's Diamond Boutique does not have a diamond on hand,it will result in a lost sale.Use the following random numbers to determine the number of lost sales of one-carat solitaires at the store over 12 months. Random numbers for sales: 10,24,03,32,23,59,95,34,34,51,08,48