Question 1

Which of the following is true about deseasonalizing data?

Accepted Answer

A)  The sum of the seasonal indexes should be 1.0. 
B)  The time series is deseasonalized by multiplying each value by its seasonal index. 
C)  Deseasonalizing a time series reduces autocorrelation. 
D)  Deseasonalizing a time series can make it easier to see a trend. 
A)  The sum of the seasonal indexes should be 1.0. 
B)  The time series is deseasonalized by multiplying each value by its seasonal index. 
C)  Deseasonalizing a time series reduces autocorrelation. 
D)  Deseasonalizing a time series can make it easier to see a trend.

Question 2

Harrison Hollow, an upscale eatery in Atlanta, tracks its sales on a daily basis. Recently, the manager stated that sales over the past three weeks have been very cyclical. Given the data she has, this statement is not a reasonable one to make.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

The Morgan Company is interested in developing a forecast for next month's sales. It has collected sales data for the past 12 months.   After analyzing these data, if the company wishes to use double exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.20 and beta = 0.20, the starting values for the constant process and the trend process can be derived from a linear trend regression model by using the intercept and slope coefficient respectively.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

If the Durbin-Watson d statistic has a value close to 2, there is reason to believe that there is no autocorrelation between the forecast errors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

If a forecast period is one month, then we will provide a new forecast each month.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

If a time series contains substantial irregular movement, the smoothing constant for a single exponential smoothing model that is close to 1.0 will result in forecasts that are not as smoothed out as those that would occur if a smaller smoothing constant was used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

From an annual time series of a company's employee income, the linear trend model Ft = 165 - 54(t) has been developed. This means that on average income has been increasing by 165 per year.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

In using simple linear regression to find the linear trend in an annual time series from 2000 to 2015, the values 2000, 2001, etc. are used as the values of the independent variable t when the regression is conducted.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

If the forecast errors are autocorrelated, this is a good indication that the model has been specified correctly.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

The forecasting interval is the unit of time for which forecasts are made.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

You are given the following linear trend model: Ft = 345.60 - 200.5(t). The forecast for period 15 is approximately -2,662.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

The Boxer Company has been in business since 1998. The following sales data are recorded by quarter for the years 2010-2012.   The managers at the company wish to determine the seasonal indexes for each quarter during the year. The first step in the process is to remove the seasonal and random components. To do this, they will begin by computing a four-period moving average. They then compute the centered moving average. What is the centered moving average for Spring '01?

Accepted Answer

A)  97.5 
B)  11.50 
C)  89.0 
D)  100 
A)  97.5 
B)  11.50 
C)  89.0 
D)  100

Question 13

Double exponential smoothing is used instead of single exponential smoothing when extra smooth forecasts are desired.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

The Wilson Company is interested in forecasting demand for its XG-667 product for quarter 13 based on 12 quarters of data. The following shows the data and the double exponential smoothing model results for periods 1-12 using alpha = 0.20 and beta = 0.40   Based on this information, what is the difference between the forecast for period 13 using smoothing constants of alpha = 0.20 and beta = 0.40 and smoothing constants of alpha = 0.10 and beta = 0.30? (Assume that the starting values for period 0 are C = 745 and T = 32.)

Accepted Answer

A)  About 108 units 
B)  Approximately 9 units 
C)  Just under 32 units 
D)  About 85 units 
A)  About 108 units 
B)  Approximately 9 units 
C)  Just under 32 units 
D)  About 85 units

Question 15

In a recent meeting, the marketing manager for a large hardware company stated that he needed to have a forecast prepared for the next three months. The three-month period is called:

Accepted Answer

A)  the forecasting horizon. 
B)  the forecasting period. 
C)  the planning time. 
D)  a business cycle. 
A)  the forecasting horizon. 
B)  the forecasting period. 
C)  the planning time. 
D)  a business cycle.

Question 16

Model specification is the process of determining how well a forecasting model fits the past data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

The following output is provided for a linear trend regression-based forecasting model based on 12 months of data:   Suppose that the actual sales for months 13-15 are: 720, 680, 800. Given this, which of the following is the forecast bias value for months 13-15?

Accepted Answer

A)  Approximately 77.7 
B)  Approximately 233.2 
C)  About -56.8 
D)  Just under 80 
A)  Approximately 77.7 
B)  Approximately 233.2 
C)  About -56.8 
D)  Just under 80

Question 18

The Morgan Company is interested in developing a forecast for next month's sales. It has collected sales data for the past 12 months.   After analyzing these data, if the company wishes to use exponential smoothing, it should employ a single smoothing model since there is evidence of a linear trend in the data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Which of the following is true about index numbers? Index numbers are:

Accepted Answer

A)  used to measure the trend component. 
B)  used to measure the seasonal component. 
C)  used to measure the cyclical component. 
D)  used to make a relative comparison of different time periods. 
A)  used to measure the trend component. 
B)  used to measure the seasonal component. 
C)  used to measure the cyclical component. 
D)  used to make a relative comparison of different time periods.

Question 20

A time-series graph shows that monthly income data have decreased gradually over the past 5 years. Given this, if a linear trend model is used to forecast future monthly income, the sign on the regression slope coefficient will be negative.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Which of the following is true about deseasonalizing data?

Harrison Hollow, an upscale eatery in Atlanta, tracks its sales on a daily basis. Recently, the manager stated that sales over the past three weeks have been very cyclical. Given the data she has, this statement is not a reasonable one to make.

If the Durbin-Watson d statistic has a value close to 2, there is reason to believe that there is no autocorrelation between the forecast errors.

If a forecast period is one month, then we will provide a new forecast each month.

If a time series contains substantial irregular movement, the smoothing constant for a single exponential smoothing model that is close to 1.0 will result in forecasts that are not as smoothed out as those that would occur if a smaller smoothing constant was used.

From an annual time series of a company's employee income, the linear trend model Ft = 165 - 54(t) has been developed. This means that on average income has been increasing by 165 per year.

In using simple linear regression to find the linear trend in an annual time series from 2000 to 2015, the values 2000, 2001, etc. are used as the values of the independent variable t when the regression is conducted.

If the forecast errors are autocorrelated, this is a good indication that the model has been specified correctly.

The forecasting interval is the unit of time for which forecasts are made.

You are given the following linear trend model: Ft = 345.60 - 200.5(t). The forecast for period 15 is approximately -2,662.

Double exponential smoothing is used instead of single exponential smoothing when extra smooth forecasts are desired.

In a recent meeting, the marketing manager for a large hardware company stated that he needed to have a forecast prepared for the next three months. The three-month period is called:

Model specification is the process of determining how well a forecasting model fits the past data.

The following output is provided for a linear trend regression-based forecasting model based on 12 months of data: Suppose that the actual sales for months 13-15 are: 720, 680, 800. Given this, which of the following is the forecast bias value for months 13-15?

Which of the following is true about index numbers? Index numbers are:

A time-series graph shows that monthly income data have decreased gradually over the past 5 years. Given this, if a linear trend model is used to forecast future monthly income, the sign on the regression slope coefficient will be negative.

The Where, Why, and How of Data Collection

Graphs, Charts and Tablesdescribing Your Data

Describing Data Using Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions

Introduction to Sampling Distributions

Estimating Single Population Parameters

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Two Population Parameters

Hypothesis Tests and Estimation for Population Variances

Analysis of Variance

Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Contingency Analysis

Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building

Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics

Introducing Business Analytics

Introduction to Decision Analysis

Introduction to Quality and Statistical Process Control

Filters

Exam 16: Analyzing and Forecasting Time-Series Data

Which of the following is true about deseasonalizing data?

Harrison Hollow, an upscale eatery in Atlanta, tracks its sales on a daily basis. Recently, the manager stated that sales over the past three weeks have been very cyclical. Given the data she has, this statement is not a reasonable one to make.

If the Durbin-Watson d statistic has a value close to 2, there is reason to believe that there is no autocorrelation between the forecast errors.

If a forecast period is one month, then we will provide a new forecast each month.

If a time series contains substantial irregular movement, the smoothing constant for a single exponential smoothing model that is close to 1.0 will result in forecasts that are not as smoothed out as those that would occur if a smaller smoothing constant was used.

From an annual time series of a company's employee income, the linear trend model Ft = 165 - 54(t) has been developed. This means that on average income has been increasing by 165 per year.

In using simple linear regression to find the linear trend in an annual time series from 2000 to 2015, the values 2000, 2001, etc. are used as the values of the independent variable t when the regression is conducted.

If the forecast errors are autocorrelated, this is a good indication that the model has been specified correctly.

The forecasting interval is the unit of time for which forecasts are made.

You are given the following linear trend model: Ft = 345.60 - 200.5(t). The forecast for period 15 is approximately -2,662.

Double exponential smoothing is used instead of single exponential smoothing when extra smooth forecasts are desired.

In a recent meeting, the marketing manager for a large hardware company stated that he needed to have a forecast prepared for the next three months. The three-month period is called:

Model specification is the process of determining how well a forecasting model fits the past data.

The following output is provided for a linear trend regression-based forecasting model based on 12 months of data: Suppose that the actual sales for months 13-15 are: 720, 680, 800. Given this, which of the following is the forecast bias value for months 13-15?

Which of the following is true about index numbers? Index numbers are:

A time-series graph shows that monthly income data have decreased gradually over the past 5 years. Given this, if a linear trend model is used to forecast future monthly income, the sign on the regression slope coefficient will be negative.

The Where, Why, and How of Data Collection

Graphs, Charts and Tablesdescribing Your Data

Describing Data Using Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Introduction to Continuous Probability Distributions

Introduction to Sampling Distributions

Estimating Single Population Parameters

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing for Two Population Parameters

Hypothesis Tests and Estimation for Population Variances

Analysis of Variance

Goodness-Of-Fit Tests and Contingency Analysis

Introduction to Linear Regression and Correlation Analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building

Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics

Introducing Business Analytics

Introduction to Decision Analysis

Introduction to Quality and Statistical Process Control

Filters