Exam 18: Time Series and Forecasting

A typical seasonal index of 103.7 for January indicates that sales for January are below the annual average.

A ______________ analysis predicts the future on the basis of past data.

Knowing the seasonal pattern in the form of indexes allows the retailer to deseasonalize sales. This is accomplished by dividing the actual sales for a month by the typical index for that month.

A plastics manufacturer performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes: = 920.0 + 22.6t Based on the seasonal indexes, which quarter is expected to have 21% more demand than predicted by the trend line?

Product sales since 2001 are: The least squares trend equation is given as: Ŷ = 100 + 28t, where t is set equal to 1 for 2001. What were the predicted sales in 2006?

What is the long-term behavior of a variable over an extended period of time called?

For the third quarter, the sales are 2,500 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.95. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?

Product sales since 2001 are: The least squares trend equation is given as: Ŷ = 100 + 28t, where t is set equal to 1 for 2001. What is the three-year moving average for 2007 to 2009?

If the exports (in $millions) for the period 2006 through 2010 were $878, $892, $864, $870, and $912, respectively, what are these values called?

A resort hotel performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes: Ŷ = 1000 + 150t The seasonal indexes have ______________.

For the third quarter, the sales are 2,500 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.20. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?

One component of a time series is cyclical variation. An example of cyclical variation is the business cycle that consists of periods of prosperity followed by periods of recession, depression, and recovery.

The ________________ method is used to determine the linear equation when the best fitting straight line is required.

To calculate monthly typical seasonal indexes, the specific seasonal indexes must be averaged for:

To study the trend and cycle components of a time series, typical seasonal indexes are used to compute ___________.

The moving average method smoothes out the fluctuations in the data.

Given the following trend equation based on five years of annual sales (in millions of dollars), beginning in 2005: Ŷ = 4.53 + 1.54t The estimated value for 2008 is ______.

If the trend equation is Ŷ = 10 + 100t, the forecasted value increases 100 units for the next time period, t.

A resort hotel performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes: Ŷ = 1000 + 150t Based on the seasonal indexes, which quarter is expected to have 15% more demand than predicted by the trend line?

For quarterly seasonal indexes, the total of the adjusted quarterly indexes will equal _____.