Exam 18: Time Series and Forecasting

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Using the following time series data, Using the following time series data,   What is the four-quarter moving average for the period ending with the second quarter in 2010? What is the four-quarter moving average for the period ending with the second quarter in 2010?

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What is the correct order of events in a typical business cycle?

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The following table shows the sales for a plastics manufacturer recorded over the past year. The seasonal indexes for each quarter are also provided. To track the trend for these four quarters, use the indexes to deseasonalize the sales data. The following table shows the sales for a plastics manufacturer recorded over the past year. The seasonal indexes for each quarter are also provided. To track the trend for these four quarters, use the indexes to deseasonalize the sales data.   What is the deseasonalized sales value for quarter 1? What is the deseasonalized sales value for quarter 1?

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The Durbin-Watson statistic is based on the:

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Autocorrelation is measured by the trend component of a time series.

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Autocorrelation in a time series can be tested using the ___________.

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Autocorrelation can be corrected by using a ________.

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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 120 + 100t. The next forecast is for period 11. The typical seasonal index for period 11 is 0.82. What are the forecast sales for period 11?

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A plastics manufacturer performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes: Ŷ = 920.0 + 22.6t A plastics manufacturer performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes: Ŷ = 920.0 + 22.6t   Using the trend line equation and the seasonal indexes, predict demand for the third period of the next year . Using the trend line equation and the seasonal indexes, predict demand for the third period of the next year .

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The forecast for the third quarter is 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.10. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?

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Even if it is zero, every time series has a ________ component.

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The time series component that exhibits fluctuations over more than a year in time above and below the secular trend is ________.

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In the linear trend equation, the ____ variable represents the Y-intercept.

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In the linear trend equation, the letter "b" is the average change in Ŷ for each change of one unit (either increase or decrease) in t.

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The two types of irregular variations that are unpredictable are ______________________ and _____________________.

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A set of typical seasonal indexes is very useful in adjusting a time series for seasonal fluctuations. The resulting time series is the ___________________________.

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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 120 + 100t. The next forecast is for period 8. The typical seasonal index for period 8 is 0.80. What are the forecast sales for period 8?

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The forecast for the third quarter is 3,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.05. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?

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What is the difference between seasonal and cyclical variation in a time series?

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The forecast for the third quarter is 3,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.75. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?

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