Exam 18: Time Series and Forecasting
Exam 1: What Is Statistics83 Questions
Exam 2: Describing Data: Frequency Tables, Frequency Distributions, and Graphic Presentation132 Questions
Exam 3: Describing Data: Numerical Measures124 Questions
Exam 4: Describing Data: Displaying and Exploring Data113 Questions
Exam 5: A Survey of Probability Concepts134 Questions
Exam 6: Discrete Probability Distributions131 Questions
Exam 7: Continuous Probability Distributions135 Questions
Exam 8: Sampling Methods and the Central Limit Theorem117 Questions
Exam 9: Estimation and Confidence Intervals131 Questions
Exam 10: One-Sample Tests of Hypothesis110 Questions
Exam 11: Two-Sample Tests of Hypothesis98 Questions
Exam 12: Analysis of Variance134 Questions
Exam 13: Correlation and Linear Regression138 Questions
Exam 14: Multiple Regression Analysis135 Questions
Exam 15: Nonparametric Methods: Nominal Level Hypothesis Tests181 Questions
Exam 16: Nonparametric Methods: Analysis of Ordinal Data138 Questions
Exam 17: Index Numbers137 Questions
Exam 18: Time Series and Forecasting139 Questions
Exam 19: Statistical Process Control and Quality Management136 Questions
Exam 20: An Introduction to Decision Theory115 Questions
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Using the following time series data,
What is the four-quarter moving average for the period ending with the second quarter in 2010?

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What is the correct order of events in a typical business cycle?
(Multiple Choice)
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The following table shows the sales for a plastics manufacturer recorded over the past year. The seasonal indexes for each quarter are also provided. To track the trend for these four quarters, use the indexes to deseasonalize the sales data.
What is the deseasonalized sales value for quarter 1?

(Essay)
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Autocorrelation is measured by the trend component of a time series.
(True/False)
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Autocorrelation in a time series can be tested using the ___________.
(Short Answer)
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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 120 + 100t. The next forecast is for period 11. The typical seasonal index for period 11 is 0.82. What are the forecast sales for period 11?
(Multiple Choice)
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A plastics manufacturer performed a quarterly time series analysis for demands over the last five years (periods 1 through 20). The analysis resulted in the following trend equation and seasonal indexes:
Ŷ = 920.0 + 22.6t
Using the trend line equation and the seasonal indexes, predict demand for the third period of the next year .

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The forecast for the third quarter is 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.10. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
(Multiple Choice)
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Even if it is zero, every time series has a ________ component.
(Short Answer)
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The time series component that exhibits fluctuations over more than a year in time above and below the secular trend is ________.
(Multiple Choice)
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In the linear trend equation, the ____ variable represents the Y-intercept.
(Short Answer)
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In the linear trend equation, the letter "b" is the average change in Ŷ for each change of one unit (either increase or decrease) in t.
(True/False)
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The two types of irregular variations that are unpredictable are ______________________ and _____________________.
(Short Answer)
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A set of typical seasonal indexes is very useful in adjusting a time series for seasonal fluctuations. The resulting time series is the ___________________________.
(Short Answer)
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The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 120 + 100t. The next forecast is for period 8. The typical seasonal index for period 8 is 0.80. What are the forecast sales for period 8?
(Multiple Choice)
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The forecast for the third quarter is 3,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.05. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
(Multiple Choice)
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What is the difference between seasonal and cyclical variation in a time series?
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The forecast for the third quarter is 3,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.75. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
(Multiple Choice)
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