Question 1

The closer the smoothing constant,α,is to 1.0

Accepted Answer

A) the greater the reaction to the most recent demand. 
B) the greater the dampening,or smoothing,effect. 
C) the more accurate the forecast. 
D) the less accurate the forecast. 
A) the greater the reaction to the most recent demand. 
B) the greater the dampening,or smoothing,effect. 
C) the more accurate the forecast. 
D) the less accurate the forecast.

Question 2

A forecast where the current period's demand is used as the next period's forecast is known as a

Accepted Answer

A) moving average forecast. 
B) naïve forecast. 
C) weighted moving average forecast. 
D) Delphi forecast. 
A) moving average forecast. 
B) naïve forecast. 
C) weighted moving average forecast. 
D) Delphi forecast.

Question 3

Multiple regression analysis can be used to relate demand to two or more dependent variables.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts:
 
At the end of May the average error would be

Accepted Answer

A) 7. 
B) 5. 
C) 3. 
D) 1. 
A) 7. 
B) 5. 
C) 3. 
D) 1.

Question 5

Explain the difference between qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods.

Accepted Answer

Qualitative forecasting methods are base

Question 6

Given the demand and forecast values shown in the table below:
 
The MAD through the end of October would be

Accepted Answer

A) 9.20 
B) -9.20 
C) 1.00 
D) 7.00 
A) 9.20 
B) -9.20 
C) 1.00 
D) 7.00

Question 7

Regression is used for forecasting when there is a relationship between the dependent variable,demand,and one or more independent (explanatory)variables.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

A company wants to product a weighted moving average forecast for April with the weights 0.40,0.35,and 0.25 assigned to March,February,and January,respectively.If the company had demands of 5,000 in January,4,750 in February,and 5,200 in March,then April's forecast is

Accepted Answer

A) 4983.33. 
B) 4992.50. 
C) 4962.50. 
D) 5000.00. 
A) 4983.33. 
B) 4992.50. 
C) 4962.50. 
D) 5000.00.

Question 9

A long-range forecast would normally not be used to

Accepted Answer

A) design the supply chain. 
B) implement strategic programs. 
C) determine production schedules. 
D) plan new products for changing markets 
A) design the supply chain. 
B) implement strategic programs. 
C) determine production schedules. 
D) plan new products for changing markets

Question 10

Time series methods use historical data to predict future demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

The _________________ forecast method consists of an exponentially smoothed forecast with a trend adjustment factor added to it.

Accepted Answer

A) Exponentially smoothed 
B) Adjusted exponentially smoothed 
C) Time series 
D) Moving average 
A) Exponentially smoothed 
B) Adjusted exponentially smoothed 
C) Time series 
D) Moving average

Question 12

The smoothing constant,α,in the exponential smoothing forecast

Accepted Answer

A) must always be a value greater than 1.0. 
B) must always be a value less than 0.10. 
C) must be a value between 0.0 and 1.0. 
D) should be equal to the time frame for the forecast. 
A) must always be a value greater than 1.0. 
B) must always be a value less than 0.10. 
C) must be a value between 0.0 and 1.0. 
D) should be equal to the time frame for the forecast.

Question 13

Short-midrange forecasts tend to use quantitative models that forecast demand based on historical demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

Forecast bias is measured by the per-period average of the sum of the forecast errors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

In today competitive environment,effective supply chain management requires accurate demand forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

A ___________ is an up-and-down movement in demand that repeats itself over a lengthy time period of more than a year.

Accepted Answer

A) trend 
B) seasonal pattern 
C) random variation 
D) cycle 
A) trend 
B) seasonal pattern 
C) random variation 
D) cycle

Question 17

A tracking signal is computed by

Accepted Answer

A) multiplying the cumulative error by MAD 
B) multiplying the absolute error by MAD 
C) dividing MAD by the cumulative absolute error 
D) dividing the cumulative error by MAD 
A) multiplying the cumulative error by MAD 
B) multiplying the absolute error by MAD 
C) dividing MAD by the cumulative absolute error 
D) dividing the cumulative error by MAD

Question 18

Explain how and why time series and regression forecasting methods differ.

Accepted Answer

Time series methods are statistical tech

Question 19

Given the following demand data for the past five months,the four period moving average forecast for June is

Accepted Answer

A) 96.25. 
B) 99.00. 
C) 110.00. 
D) 93.75. 
A) 96.25. 
B) 99.00. 
C) 110.00. 
D) 93.75.

Question 20

Forecast methods based on judgment,opinion,past experiences,or best guesses are known as ___________ methods.

Accepted Answer

A) quantitative 
B) qualitative 
C) time series 
D) regression 
A) quantitative 
B) qualitative 
C) time series 
D) regression

Exam 12: Forecasting

The closer the smoothing constant,α,is to 1.0

A forecast where the current period's demand is used as the next period's forecast is known as a

Multiple regression analysis can be used to relate demand to two or more dependent variables.

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts: At the end of May the average error would be

Explain the difference between qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods.

Given the demand and forecast values shown in the table below: The MAD through the end of October would be

Regression is used for forecasting when there is a relationship between the dependent variable,demand,and one or more independent (explanatory)variables.

A company wants to product a weighted moving average forecast for April with the weights 0.40,0.35,and 0.25 assigned to March,February,and January,respectively.If the company had demands of 5,000 in January,4,750 in February,and 5,200 in March,then April's forecast is

A long-range forecast would normally not be used to

Time series methods use historical data to predict future demand.

The _________________ forecast method consists of an exponentially smoothed forecast with a trend adjustment factor added to it.

The smoothing constant,α,in the exponential smoothing forecast

Short-midrange forecasts tend to use quantitative models that forecast demand based on historical demand.

Forecast bias is measured by the per-period average of the sum of the forecast errors.

In today competitive environment,effective supply chain management requires accurate demand forecasts.

A ___________ is an up-and-down movement in demand that repeats itself over a lengthy time period of more than a year.

A tracking signal is computed by

Explain how and why time series and regression forecasting methods differ.

Given the following demand data for the past five months,the four period moving average forecast for June is

Forecast methods based on judgment,opinion,past experiences,or best guesses are known as ___________ methods.

Operations Management

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Processes and Technology

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Human Resources

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Supply Chain Management: Strategy and Design

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