Question 1

A qualitative procedure used to develop a consensus forecast is known as

Accepted Answer

A) exponential smoothing. 
B) regression methods. 
C) the Delphi technique. 
D) naïve forecasting. 
A) exponential smoothing. 
B) regression methods. 
C) the Delphi technique. 
D) naïve forecasting.

Question 2

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts:
 
The forecast error for February is

Accepted Answer

A) 10. 
B) -10. 
C) -15. 
D) -5 
A) 10. 
B) -10. 
C) -15. 
D) -5

Question 3

The larger the mean absolute deviation (MAD)the more accurate the forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

The average,absolute difference between the forecast and demand is a popular measure of forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Time series methods assume that demand patterns in the past is a good predictor of demand in the future.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Which of the following can be used to monitor a forecast to see if it is biased high or low?

Accepted Answer

A) a tracking signal 
B) the mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
C) the mean absolute percentage deviation (MAP
D)  
D) a linear trend line model 
A) a tracking signal 
B) the mean absolute deviation (MA
D)  
C) the mean absolute percentage deviation (MAP
D)  
D) a linear trend line model

Question 7

The mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD)measures the absolute error as a percentage of

Accepted Answer

A) all errors. 
B) per period demand. 
C) total demand. 
D) the average error. 
A) all errors. 
B) per period demand. 
C) total demand. 
D) the average error.

Question 8

The exponential smoothing model produces a naïve forecast when the smoothing constant,α,is equal to

Accepted Answer

A) 0.00. 
B) 1.00. 
C) 0.50. 
D) 2.00 
A) 0.00. 
B) 1.00. 
C) 0.50. 
D) 2.00

Question 9

Movements in demand that do not follow a given pattern are referred to as random variations.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

Because of ease of use and simplicity,exponential smoothing is preferred over smoothing average.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

The long-term strategic planning process is dependent upon qualitative forecasting methods.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

Which of the following statements concerning average error is true?

Accepted Answer

A) a positive value indicates high bias,and a negative value indicates low bias 
B) a positive value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates low bias 
C) a negative value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates high bias 
D) a positive value indicates low bias,and a negative value indicates high bias 
A) a positive value indicates high bias,and a negative value indicates low bias 
B) a positive value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates low bias 
C) a negative value indicates zero bias,and a negative value indicates high bias 
D) a positive value indicates low bias,and a negative value indicates high bias

Question 13

A mathematical technique for forecasting that relates the dependent variable to an independent variable is

Accepted Answer

A) correlation analysis. 
B) exponential smoothing. 
C) linear regression. 
D) weighted moving average. 
A) correlation analysis. 
B) exponential smoothing. 
C) linear regression. 
D) weighted moving average.

Question 14

Because of the development of advanced forecasting models managers no longer track forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

If the forecast for July was 3300 and the actual demand for July was 3250,then the exponential smoothing forecast for August using α = 0.20 is

Accepted Answer

A) 3300. 
B) 3290. 
C) 3275. 
D) 3250. 
A) 3300. 
B) 3290. 
C) 3275. 
D) 3250.

Question 16

Given the demand and forecast values shown in the table below:
 
The forecast error for September is

Accepted Answer

A) 10.00. 
B) -10.00. 
C) 1.00. 
D) 39.00. 
A) 10.00. 
B) -10.00. 
C) 1.00. 
D) 39.00.

Question 17

The _______ method uses demand in the first period to forecast demand in the next period.

Accepted Answer

A) naïve 
B) moving average 
C) exponential smoothing. 
D) linear trend 
A) naïve 
B) moving average 
C) exponential smoothing. 
D) linear trend

Question 18

The trend toward continuous replenishment in supply chain design has shifted the need for accurate forecasts from short-term to long-term.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Because of the heightened competition resulting from globalization most companies find little strategic value in long-range forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

Correlation in linear regression is a measure of the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable,demand,and an independent (explanatory)variable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Exam 12: Forecasting

A qualitative procedure used to develop a consensus forecast is known as

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts: The forecast error for February is

The larger the mean absolute deviation (MAD)the more accurate the forecast.

The average,absolute difference between the forecast and demand is a popular measure of forecast error.

Time series methods assume that demand patterns in the past is a good predictor of demand in the future.

Which of the following can be used to monitor a forecast to see if it is biased high or low?

The mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD)measures the absolute error as a percentage of

The exponential smoothing model produces a naïve forecast when the smoothing constant,α,is equal to

Movements in demand that do not follow a given pattern are referred to as random variations.

Because of ease of use and simplicity,exponential smoothing is preferred over smoothing average.

The long-term strategic planning process is dependent upon qualitative forecasting methods.

Which of the following statements concerning average error is true?

A mathematical technique for forecasting that relates the dependent variable to an independent variable is

Because of the development of advanced forecasting models managers no longer track forecast error.

If the forecast for July was 3300 and the actual demand for July was 3250,then the exponential smoothing forecast for August using α = 0.20 is

Given the demand and forecast values shown in the table below: The forecast error for September is

The _______ method uses demand in the first period to forecast demand in the next period.

The trend toward continuous replenishment in supply chain design has shifted the need for accurate forecasts from short-term to long-term.

Because of the heightened competition resulting from globalization most companies find little strategic value in long-range forecast.

Correlation in linear regression is a measure of the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable,demand,and an independent (explanatory)variable.

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