Exam 18: Model Building

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Motorcycle Fatalities A traffic consultant has analyzed the factors that affect the number of motorcycle fatalities.She has come to the conclusion that two important variables are the number of motorcycle and the number of cars.She proposed the model Motorcycle Fatalities  A traffic consultant has analyzed the factors that affect the number of motorcycle fatalities.She has come to the conclusion that two important variables are the number of motorcycle and the number of cars.She proposed the model   (the second-order model with interaction),where y = number of annual fatalities per county,x<sub>1</sub> = number of motorcycles registered in the county (in 10,000),and x<sub>2</sub> = number of cars registered in the county (in 1000).The computer output (based on a random sample of 35 counties)is shown below: THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS     S = 15.2 R−Sq = 47.2% ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE   ​ ​ -{Motorcycle Fatalities Narrative} What does the coefficient of   tell you about the model? (the second-order model with interaction),where y = number of annual fatalities per county,x1 = number of motorcycles registered in the county (in 10,000),and x2 = number of cars registered in the county (in 1000).The computer output (based on a random sample of 35 counties)is shown below: THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS Motorcycle Fatalities  A traffic consultant has analyzed the factors that affect the number of motorcycle fatalities.She has come to the conclusion that two important variables are the number of motorcycle and the number of cars.She proposed the model   (the second-order model with interaction),where y = number of annual fatalities per county,x<sub>1</sub> = number of motorcycles registered in the county (in 10,000),and x<sub>2</sub> = number of cars registered in the county (in 1000).The computer output (based on a random sample of 35 counties)is shown below: THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS     S = 15.2 R−Sq = 47.2% ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE   ​ ​ -{Motorcycle Fatalities Narrative} What does the coefficient of   tell you about the model? Motorcycle Fatalities  A traffic consultant has analyzed the factors that affect the number of motorcycle fatalities.She has come to the conclusion that two important variables are the number of motorcycle and the number of cars.She proposed the model   (the second-order model with interaction),where y = number of annual fatalities per county,x<sub>1</sub> = number of motorcycles registered in the county (in 10,000),and x<sub>2</sub> = number of cars registered in the county (in 1000).The computer output (based on a random sample of 35 counties)is shown below: THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS     S = 15.2 R−Sq = 47.2% ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE   ​ ​ -{Motorcycle Fatalities Narrative} What does the coefficient of   tell you about the model? S = 15.2 R−Sq = 47.2% ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE Motorcycle Fatalities  A traffic consultant has analyzed the factors that affect the number of motorcycle fatalities.She has come to the conclusion that two important variables are the number of motorcycle and the number of cars.She proposed the model   (the second-order model with interaction),where y = number of annual fatalities per county,x<sub>1</sub> = number of motorcycles registered in the county (in 10,000),and x<sub>2</sub> = number of cars registered in the county (in 1000).The computer output (based on a random sample of 35 counties)is shown below: THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS     S = 15.2 R−Sq = 47.2% ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE   ​ ​ -{Motorcycle Fatalities Narrative} What does the coefficient of   tell you about the model? ​ ​ -{Motorcycle Fatalities Narrative} What does the coefficient of Motorcycle Fatalities  A traffic consultant has analyzed the factors that affect the number of motorcycle fatalities.She has come to the conclusion that two important variables are the number of motorcycle and the number of cars.She proposed the model   (the second-order model with interaction),where y = number of annual fatalities per county,x<sub>1</sub> = number of motorcycles registered in the county (in 10,000),and x<sub>2</sub> = number of cars registered in the county (in 1000).The computer output (based on a random sample of 35 counties)is shown below: THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS     S = 15.2 R−Sq = 47.2% ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE   ​ ​ -{Motorcycle Fatalities Narrative} What does the coefficient of   tell you about the model? tell you about the model?

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For the following regression equation For the following regression equation   ,a unit increase in x<sub>2</sub>,while holding x<sub>1</sub> constant at a value of 3,decreases the value of y on average by: ,a unit increase in x2,while holding x1 constant at a value of 3,decreases the value of y on average by:

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An indicator variable is a nominal variable that can assume _______________ possible values.

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In the first-order model In the first-order model   ,a unit increase in x<sub>2</sub>,while holding x<sub>1</sub> constant,increases the value of y on average by 5 units. ,a unit increase in x2,while holding x1 constant,increases the value of y on average by 5 units.

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We can incorporate any nominal variable into regression analysis by creating one or more dummy variables,also known as:

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A second-order polynomial model is shaped like a(n)____________________.

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Incomes of Physicians An economist is analyzing the incomes of physicians (general practitioners,surgeons,and psychiatrists).He realizes that an important factor is the number of years of experience.However,he wants to know if there are differences among the three professional groups.He takes a random sample of 125 physicians and estimates the multiple regression model y = β0 + β1x1 + β2x2 + β3x3 + ε,where y = annual income (in $1,000),x1 = years of experience,x2 = 1 if physician and 0 if not,and x3 = 1 if surgeons and 0 if not.The computer output is shown below. THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS y = 71.65 + 2.07x1 + 10.16x2− 7.44x3  Incomes of Physicians  An economist is analyzing the incomes of physicians (general practitioners,surgeons,and psychiatrists).He realizes that an important factor is the number of years of experience.However,he wants to know if there are differences among the three professional groups.He takes a random sample of 125 physicians and estimates the multiple regression model y = β<sub>0</sub> + β<sub>1</sub>x<sub>1</sub> + β<sub>2</sub>x<sub>2</sub> + β<sub>3</sub>x<sub>3</sub> + ε,where y = annual income (in $1,000),x<sub>1</sub> = years of experience,x<sub>2</sub> = 1 if physician and 0 if not,and x<sub>3</sub> = 1 if surgeons and 0 if not.The computer output is shown below. THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS y = 71.65 + 2.07x<sub>1</sub> + 10.16x<sub>2</sub>− 7.44x<sub>3</sub>   S = 42.6 R−Sq = 30.9% ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE   ​ ​ -{Incomes of Physicians Narrative} Is there enough evidence at the 10% significance level to conclude that surgeons earn less on average than psychiatrists? S = 42.6 R−Sq = 30.9% ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE  Incomes of Physicians  An economist is analyzing the incomes of physicians (general practitioners,surgeons,and psychiatrists).He realizes that an important factor is the number of years of experience.However,he wants to know if there are differences among the three professional groups.He takes a random sample of 125 physicians and estimates the multiple regression model y = β<sub>0</sub> + β<sub>1</sub>x<sub>1</sub> + β<sub>2</sub>x<sub>2</sub> + β<sub>3</sub>x<sub>3</sub> + ε,where y = annual income (in $1,000),x<sub>1</sub> = years of experience,x<sub>2</sub> = 1 if physician and 0 if not,and x<sub>3</sub> = 1 if surgeons and 0 if not.The computer output is shown below. THE REGRESSION EQUATION IS y = 71.65 + 2.07x<sub>1</sub> + 10.16x<sub>2</sub>− 7.44x<sub>3</sub>   S = 42.6 R−Sq = 30.9% ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE   ​ ​ -{Incomes of Physicians Narrative} Is there enough evidence at the 10% significance level to conclude that surgeons earn less on average than psychiatrists? ​ ​ -{Incomes of Physicians Narrative} Is there enough evidence at the 10% significance level to conclude that surgeons earn less on average than psychiatrists?

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The model y = β0 + β1x1 + β2x2 + ε is used whenever the statistician believes that,on average,y is linearly related to:

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