Exam 20: Time-Series Analytics and Forecasting

Hotel Occupancy A small hotel has recorded the number of rooms occupied during weekdays over a period of four weeks as is shown in the table below: -{Hotel Occupancy Narrative} Find the regression trend line.

The time series component that reflects a wavelike pattern describing a long-term trend that is generally apparent over a number of years is called cyclical.

In determining monthly seasonal indexes for natural gas consumption,the sum of the 12 means for gas consumption as a percentage of the moving average is 1195.To get the seasonal indexes,each monthly mean is to be multiplied by (1195 / 1200).

Liquor Sales The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows. ​ ​ -{Liquor Sales Narrative} A centered 5-year moving average is to be constructed for the liquor sales.The number of moving averages that will be calculated is ____________________.

If the time series is composed of ____________________ variation and ____________________ trend,we can use seasonal indexes and the regression equation to forecast.

A trend is a persistent pattern in annual time-series data that has to be followed for several years.

The cyclical variation component of a time series measures the over-all general directional movement over a long period of time.

Liquor Sales The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows. ​ ​ -{Liquor Sales Narrative} A centered 3-year moving average is to be constructed for the liquor sales.The moving average for 2015 is ____________________.

To measure the seasonal variation,we compute seasonal ____________________,which gauge the degree to which the seasons differ from one another.

The linear trend = 115.8 + 2.5t was estimated using a time series with 25 time periods.The forecasted value for time period 26 is:

Holiday Hours The total holiday hours (in 1000s)were recorded for 16 quarters in a large steel mill as shown below. ​ ​ -{Holiday Hours Narrative} Calculate the seasonal indexes based on the regression trend line in the previous question.

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations,there are only thirteen 3-year moving averages.

The principle of parsimony indicates that the simplest model that gets the job done adequately should be used.

Quarterly Sales The quarterly sales (in millions of dollars)of a Motorcycle Dealership were recorded for the years 2011-2014.They are listed below. ​ ​ -{Quarterly Sales Narrative} Graph the time series and the moving averages.What can you conclude from your time-series smoothing?

The model y_t = T_t×C_t×S_t×R_t that assumes the time series value at time t is the product of the four time series components is referred to as:

Which of the following terms describes the overall long-term tendency of a time series?

If we have 5 years of monthly observations,we may use the first four years to develop several competing forecasting models,and then use them to forecast the fifth year.Since we know the actual values in the fifth year,we can choose the technique that results in the most accurate forecast using either the mean absolute deviation (MAD)or the sum of squares for forecast error (SSE).

Which of the four time series components is more likely to exhibit the relative steady growth of the population of Las Vegas from 1964 to 2004?

Daily Hoagie Sales The table below shows the number of hoagies sold daily during a four-week period at Hoagie Haven in Sutton,West Virginia. ​ ​ -{Daily Hoagie Sales Narrative} Use regression analysis to find the linear trend line.

Which of the following terms describes the up and down movements of a time series that vary both in length and intensity?