Exam 20: Time-Series Analytics and Forecasting

The trend line = 0.70 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is:

We calculate the three-period moving averages for a time series for all time periods except the:

The trend line = 0.70 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2011-2015,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2011.The seasonal indexes computed from the trend line for the four quarters of the year 2016 were .85,1.05,1.15,and .80,respectively.The seasonalized forecast for the third quarter of the year 2016 is:

The trend equation for quarter sales data (in millions of dollars)for 2011-2015 is given by = 6.8 + 1.2t,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2011.The seasonal index for the third quarter of 2008 is 1.25.The forecasted sales' value for the third quarter of 2016 is:

A time series is shown in the table below: a.Plot the time series to determine which of the trend models appears to fit better. b.Use the regression technique to calculate the linear trend line and the quadratic trend line.Which line fits better? Use the best model to forecast the value of y for time period 7.

Based on the following scatter plot,which of the time-series components is not present in this quarterly time series?

If summer 2011 sales were $16,800 and the summer seasonal index was 1.20,then the deseasonalized 2011 summer sales value was $20,160.

Liquor Sales The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows. ​ ​ -{Liquor Sales Narrative} Exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.4 will be used to smooth the liquor sales.The smoothed value for 2015 is_________________.

The high level of airline ticket sales that travel agencies experience during summer is an example of what component of a time series?

Microprocessors Annual production (in millions)of computer microprocessors in a large electronics company was recorded as shown below ​ ​ -{Microprocessors Narrative} Plot the percentage of trend.

If we want to measure the seasonal variations on stock market performance by month,we would need:

MAD averages the absolute differences between the actual and ____________________ values.

Which of the following is not an advantage of exponential smoothing?

Liquor Sales The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows. ​ ​ -{Liquor Sales Narrative} A centered 5-year moving average is to be constructed for the liquor sales.The moving average for 2013 is ____________________.

The NYSE works 5-day work per week.If we want to measure the impact of the day of the week on NYSE performance we would need:

Each forecast using the method of exponential smoothing depends on all the previous observations in the time series.

Hotel Occupancy A small hotel has recorded the number of rooms occupied during weekdays over a period of four weeks as is shown in the table below: -{Hotel Occupancy Narrative} What do the daily indexes tell us?

Motor Oil Sales As part of an effort to forecast future sales,the monthly motor oil sales (in thousands of gallons)for the past 10 months are recorded.These data are shown below. ​ ​ -In determining weekly seasonal indexes for natural gas consumption,the sum of the 52 means for gas consumption as a percentage of the moving average is 5195.To get the seasonal indexes,each monthly mean is to be multiplied by (5200 / 5195).

Holiday Hours The total holiday hours (in 1000s)were recorded for 16 quarters in a large steel mill as shown below. ​ ​ -{Holiday Hours Narrative} What do the seasonal indexes tell us?

Liquor Sales The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows. ​ ​ -{Liquor Sales Narrative} Exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.4 will be used to forecast liquor sales.The forecast for 2019 is ____________________.