Question 1

A tracking signal provides a method for quantifying forecast

Accepted Answer

A) bias 
B) error 
C) accuracy 
D) outliers 
A) bias 
B) error 
C) accuracy 
D) outliers

Question 2

For single exponential smoothing,

Accepted Answer

A) Large values of alpha ($\alpha$) place more emphasis on recent data 
B) Small values of alpha ($\alpha$) place more emphasis on recent data 
C) Very volatile time series with substantial random variability should use a large value for alpha ($\alpha$) 
D) Very stable time series with little random variability should use small values for alpha ($\alpha$) 
A) Large values of alpha ($\alpha$) place more emphasis on recent data 
B) Small values of alpha ($\alpha$) place more emphasis on recent data 
C) Very volatile time series with substantial random variability should use a large value for alpha ($\alpha$) 
D) Very stable time series with little random variability should use small values for alpha ($\alpha$)

Question 3

If actual demand for a product is highly influenced by only random variation, the quantitative technique to use for forecasting demand is

Accepted Answer

A) Regression 
B) Moving average 
C) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAP
E)  
D) Delphi 
A) Regression 
B) Moving average 
C) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAP
E)  
D) Delphi

Question 4

A Taiwan electronics company exports personal computers (PCs) to the U.S.Their PC sales (in thousands) over the past five years are given below.
  
a.What is the regression equation if the company wants to predict sales?
b.What is the forecast for sales in year 6?

Accepted Answer

a. @#IMG-DLM&  a = [ (55) (63) - (15) (2

Question 5

A long-range forecast typically covers a planning horizon of 3 to 12 months.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

Regression analysis

Accepted Answer

A) Is limited to one dependent and one independent variable 
B) Is best with linear relationships 
C) Maximizes the sum of the squared deviations between the actual time series value and the estimated values of the dependent variable 
D) Can be used with time as the independent variable 
A) Is limited to one dependent and one independent variable 
B) Is best with linear relationships 
C) Maximizes the sum of the squared deviations between the actual time series value and the estimated values of the dependent variable 
D) Can be used with time as the independent variable

Question 7

All time series contain random variation but may not contain trend or seasonal components.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

Aggregate forecasts are generally much easier to develop whereas detailed forecasts require more time and resources.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Irregular variation and random variation both refer to unexplainable deviation of a time series from a predictable pattern.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

Because of random variations, forecasts are never 100% accurate.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

The forecasting error measurement that is different in that the measurement scale factor is eliminated is

Accepted Answer

A) MSE 
B) MAD 
C) RMSE 
D) MAPE 
A) MSE 
B) MAD 
C) RMSE 
D) MAPE

Question 12

Top managers use detailed forecasts of unit sales for individual products (e.g., brands and sizes) for decisions involving financial planning and for sizing and locating new facilities.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Which of the following is not a valid approach to gathering data for judgmental forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) Questionnaire 
B) Telephone contact 
C) Personal interview 
D) Company records 
A) Questionnaire 
B) Telephone contact 
C) Personal interview 
D) Company records

Question 14

____ forecasts are needed to plan for facility expansion.

Accepted Answer

A) Long-range 
B) Intermediate-range 
C) Short-range 
D) Demand planning 
A) Long-range 
B) Intermediate-range 
C) Short-range 
D) Demand planning

Question 15

Explain the difference between statistical forecasting and judgment forecasting.

Accepted Answer

Statistical forecasting is based on the

Question 16

The Espresso Cart has had the following pattern of espresso sales over the last two weeks:
   What is the forecast for Friday's sales using a three-day moving average?

Accepted Answer

F(Friday)

Question 17

What is a time series, and what types of characteristics typically make up time series?

Accepted Answer

A time series is a set of observations m

Question 18

Single exponential smoothing is a forecasting technique that uses a weighted average of past time-series values to forecast the value of the time series in the next period.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

____ forecasts are needed for planning production schedules and to assign workers to jobs.

Accepted Answer

A) Long-range 
B) Intermediate-range 
C) Short-range 
D) Demand planning 
A) Long-range 
B) Intermediate-range 
C) Short-range 
D) Demand planning

Question 20

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store.Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are shown below along with the results of two different forecasting models that were developed t:
   Which is the better forecasting model, based on the MAD criterion?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM&  MAD (Forecast 1) =

Exam 11: Forecasting and Demand Planning

A tracking signal provides a method for quantifying forecast

For single exponential smoothing,

If actual demand for a product is highly influenced by only random variation, the quantitative technique to use for forecasting demand is

A Taiwan electronics company exports personal computers (PCs) to the U.S.Their PC sales (in thousands) over the past five years are given below. a.What is the regression equation if the company wants to predict sales? b.What is the forecast for sales in year 6?

A long-range forecast typically covers a planning horizon of 3 to 12 months.

Regression analysis

All time series contain random variation but may not contain trend or seasonal components.

Aggregate forecasts are generally much easier to develop whereas detailed forecasts require more time and resources.

Irregular variation and random variation both refer to unexplainable deviation of a time series from a predictable pattern.

Because of random variations, forecasts are never 100% accurate.

The forecasting error measurement that is different in that the measurement scale factor is eliminated is

Top managers use detailed forecasts of unit sales for individual products (e.g., brands and sizes) for decisions involving financial planning and for sizing and locating new facilities.

Which of the following is not a valid approach to gathering data for judgmental forecasting?

____ forecasts are needed to plan for facility expansion.

Explain the difference between statistical forecasting and judgment forecasting.

The Espresso Cart has had the following pattern of espresso sales over the last two weeks: What is the forecast for Friday's sales using a three-day moving average?

What is a time series, and what types of characteristics typically make up time series?

Single exponential smoothing is a forecasting technique that uses a weighted average of past time-series values to forecast the value of the time series in the next period.

____ forecasts are needed for planning production schedules and to assign workers to jobs.

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store.Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are shown below along with the results of two different forecasting models that were developed t: Which is the better forecasting model, based on the MAD criterion?

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