Exam 11: Forecasting and Demand Planning

Sales of a new CD at a store for the last 4 weeks are shown below. a.Find a 3 period moving average forecast for the next week. b.Find a 4 period moving average forecast for the next week. c.Actual sales for week 5 were 105 units.What would be the 3- and 4-period moving average forecasts for week 6?

Repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time are called ____.

Based on the information shown below, develop forecasts for June using both a 2-period moving average model and an exponential smoothing model with $\alpha$ = 0.10. For the exponential smoothing model, assume the forecast for February was 800.

If single exponential smoothing is used and the time series has a negative trend, the forecast will

Describe some of the issues that managers must consider in applying forecasting methods in practice.

A major difference between MSE and MAD is that MAD is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

The following data represents the home mortgage loan interest rates at a local bank over an eight-month period: a.What is the forecast for month 8 using a moving average model with an AP = 4? b.What is the forecast for month 9 using a moving average model with an AP = 6?

As the value of k is increased in a moving average forecasting model, the forecast reacts more slowly to recent changes in the time series.

An R² of 0.80 means

Long range forecasts expressed in sales dollars are more meaningful to top managers than to managers at the operations level.

Better operational decisions can be made by integrating forecasting with value chain and capacity management systems.

Define regression analysis and explain how it is an approach to forecasting.

A single moving average is most appropriate for data with identifiable trends.

Discuss the three planning horizons used in forecasting and the types of decisions made in each.

In forecasting, irregular variation that is explainable can normally be discarded.

Define forecast error and describe ways that it is measured.

Valentine's Day is the best day of the year for selling roses at River Road Florist.Dozens of roses sold on Valentine's Day over six years are as follows: a.What is the forecast for Valentine's Day in 2011 using a 3-period moving average? b.What is the forecast for Valentine's Day in 2011 using a 5-period moving average? d.What is the MAD for years 2008 - 2010 using a 3-period moving average? e.What is the tracking signal for years 2008 - 2010 using a 3-period moving average?

Using the data shown below, compute the mean square error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error for the forecasts shown.

Seasonal patterns can occur over the weeks during a month, over days during a week, or hours during a day.

____ forecasts are needed to plan work-force levels, allocate budgets among divisions and schedule jobs and resources.