Question 1

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures,which are related to product demand,to predict demand?

Accepted Answer

A) associative models 
B) exponential smoothing 
C) weighted moving average 
D) moving average 
E) trend projection 
A) associative models 
B) exponential smoothing 
C) weighted moving average 
D) moving average 
E) trend projection A

Question 2

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

Accepted Answer

A) trend 
B) random variations 
C) seasonality 
D) cycles 
E) They may exhibit all of the above. 
A) trend 
B) random variations 
C) seasonality 
D) cycles 
E) They may exhibit all of the above. E

Question 3

For a given product demand,the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x.The negative sign on the slope of the equation:

Accepted Answer

A) is a mathematical impossibility. 
B) is an indication that the forecast is biased,with forecast values lower than actual values. 
C) is an indication that product demand is declining. 
D) implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative. 
E) implies that the cumulative error will be negative. 
A) is a mathematical impossibility. 
B) is an indication that the forecast is biased,with forecast values lower than actual values. 
C) is an indication that product demand is declining. 
D) implies that the coefficient of determination will also be negative. 
E) implies that the cumulative error will be negative. C

Question 4

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates,money supplies,housing starts,and other planning indicators.

Accepted Answer

The answer of ________ forecasts address the business cycle by...

Question 5

What is a time-series forecasting model?

Accepted Answer

A time-series foreca

Question 6

What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

Accepted Answer

A tracking signal is a measure of how we

Question 7

Given forecast errors of -1,4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A) 2 
B) 3 
C) 4 
D) 8 
E) 16 
A) 2 
B) 3 
C) 4 
D) 8 
E) 16

Question 8

Weekly sales of copy paper at Cubicle Suppliers are provided in the table below.Compute a three-period moving average and a four-period moving average for weeks 5,6,and 7.Compute the MAD for both forecasting methods.Which model is more accurate? Forecast week 8 with the more accurate method.
Week Sales (cases)
1 17
2 21
3 27
4 31
5 19
6 17
7 21

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& The MAD for the 3-week moving average i

Question 9

What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain partners?

Accepted Answer

A) FORE 
B) MULTISUP 
C) CPFR 
D) SUPPLY 
E) MSCP 
A) FORE 
B) MULTISUP 
C) CPFR 
D) SUPPLY 
E) MSCP

Question 10

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for.Give her three possible uses/purposes.

Accepted Answer

Any three of: planning purchas

Question 11

List and briefly describe the three major types of forecasts that organizations use in planning future operations.

Accepted Answer

The three types are economic,technologic

Question 12

One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local organic food market are provided in the table below.Based on these data,forecast week 9 using a five-week moving average.
Week Sales
1 415
2 389
3 420
4 382
5 410
6 432
7 405
8 421

Accepted Answer

(382 + 410

Question 14

Explain,in your own words,the meaning of the coefficient of determination.

Accepted Answer

The coefficient of determinati

Question 15

Taco Bell's unique employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using:

Accepted Answer

A) point-of-sale computers to track food sales in 15 minute intervals. 
B) focus forecasting. 
C) a six-week moving average forecasting technique. 
D) multiple regression. 
E) A and C are both correct. 
A) point-of-sale computers to track food sales in 15 minute intervals. 
B) focus forecasting. 
C) a six-week moving average forecasting technique. 
D) multiple regression. 
E) A and C are both correct.

Question 16

Forecasts used for new product planning,capital expenditures,facility location or expansion,and R&D typically utilize a:

Accepted Answer

A) short-range time horizon. 
B) medium-range time horizon. 
C) long-range time horizon. 
D) naive method,because there is no data history. 
E) trend extrapolation. 
A) short-range time horizon. 
B) medium-range time horizon. 
C) long-range time horizon. 
D) naive method,because there is no data history. 
E) trend extrapolation.

Question 17

What does it mean to "decompose" a time series?

Accepted Answer

To decompose a time series mea

Question 18

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month,averaged over all 12 months of the year.The product follows a seasonal pattern,for which the January monthly index is 1.25.What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Accepted Answer

8,000 × 1.

Question 19

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing,but at the expense of:

Accepted Answer

A) manager understanding. 
B) accuracy. 
C) stability. 
D) sensitivity to real changes in the data. 
E) All of the above are diminished when the number of periods increases. 
A) manager understanding. 
B) accuracy. 
C) stability. 
D) sensitivity to real changes in the data. 
E) All of the above are diminished when the number of periods increases.

Question 20

Identify the four components of a time series.Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so?

Accepted Answer

Trend,seasonality,cycles,and r

Exam 4: Forecasting

Which of the following techniques uses variables such as price and promotional expenditures,which are related to product demand,to predict demand?

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

For a given product demand,the time-series trend equation is 53 - 4x.The negative sign on the slope of the equation:

________ forecasts address the business cycle by predicting inflation rates,money supplies,housing starts,and other planning indicators.

What is a time-series forecasting model?

What is a tracking signal? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals.

Given forecast errors of -1,4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

What forecasting systems combine the intelligence of multiple supply chain partners?

A skeptical manager asks what short-range forecasts can be used for.Give her three possible uses/purposes.

List and briefly describe the three major types of forecasts that organizations use in planning future operations.

One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved.

Weekly sales of ten-grain bread at the local organic food market are provided in the table below.Based on these data,forecast week 9 using a five-week moving average. Week Sales 1 415 2 389 3 420 4 382 5 410 6 432 7 405 8 421

Explain,in your own words,the meaning of the coefficient of determination.

Taco Bell's unique employee scheduling practices are partly the result of using:

Forecasts used for new product planning,capital expenditures,facility location or expansion,and R&D typically utilize a:

What does it mean to "decompose" a time series?

Demand for a certain product is forecast to be 8,000 units per month,averaged over all 12 months of the year.The product follows a seasonal pattern,for which the January monthly index is 1.25.What is the seasonally-adjusted sales forecast for January?

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing,but at the expense of:

Identify the four components of a time series.Which one of these is rarely forecast? Why is this so?

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