Exam 27: Simulation

Julie's Diamond Boutique is very concerned with its order policies related to one-carat diamond solitaires.Their current policy is to order 10 diamonds whenever their inventory reaches 6 diamonds (unless there is already an ordered delivery due).Currently there are 8 diamonds on hand.Orders are placed at the end of the month and take one month to arrive .The following distribution of monthly sales has been developed using historical sales.If Julie's Diamond Boutique does not have a diamond on hand,it will result in a lost sale.Use the following random numbers to determine the number of lost sales of one-carat solitaires at the store over 12 months. Random numbers for sales: 10,24,03,32,23,59,95,34,34,51,08,48

Sam's hardware store has an order policy of ordering 12 gallons of a specific primer whenever 7 gallons are on hand (unless there's already an ordered delivery due).The store would like to see how well their policy works.Assume that beginning inventory in period 1 is 10 gallons and that orders are placed at the end of the week to be received one week later.(In other words,if an order is placed at the end of week one,it is available at the beginning of week 3. )Assume that if inventory is not on hand,it will result in a lost sale.The weekly demand distribution obtained from past sales is found in the table below.Also,use the random numbers that are provided and simulate 10 weeks' worth of sales.How many sales are lost? Random numbers for sales: 37,60,79,21,85,71,48,39,31,35

Explain what is meant by the concept of "time compression" in simulation modeling.

In most real-world inventory problems,lead time and demand vary in ways that make simulation a necessity because mathematical modeling is extremely difficult.

From a portion of a probability distribution,you read that P(demand = 1)is 0.05,P(demand = 2)is 0.15,and P(demand = 3)is .20.The cumulative probability for demand = 3 would be which of the following?

Provide a small example illustrating how random numbers are used in Monte Carlo simulation.

Simulation allows managers to test the effects of major policy decisions on real-life systems without disturbing the real system.

Which of the following statements regarding simulation is TRUE?

The ________ method is a simulation technique that uses random elements when chance exists in their behavior.

Historical records on a certain product indicate the following behavior for demand.The data represent the 288 days that the business was open during 2000.Convert these data into random number intervals.(Round each probability used to 2 decimal places,e.g. ,0.36. )

Which of the following is an idea behind simulation?

Which of the following are advantages of simulation? I.time compression II."what-if?" questions are possible III.flexibility IV.repetitive approach V.input must be user generated

A warehouse manager needs to simulate the demand placed on a product that does not fit standard models.The concept being measured is "demand during lead time," where both lead time and daily demand are variable.The historical record for this product suggests the following probability distribution.Convert this distribution into random number intervals.

The numbers used to represent each possible value or outcome in a computer simulation are referred to as ________.

What is the cumulative probability of selling 4 tires?

Simulation is the attempt to duplicate the features,appearance,and characteristics of a real system,usually by means of a computerized model.

Simulation can use any probability distribution that the user defines.

Suppose the following random numbers (1,34,22,78,56,98,00,82)were selected during a Monte Carlo simulation that was based on the chart below.What was the average demand per period for the simulation? What is the expected demand?

Setting up a probability distribution,building a cumulative probability distribution,and generating random numbers are:

Simulation provides optimal solutions to problems.